Football · North Macedonia First League · 02/11, 14:00

Prediction: KF Bashkimi vs KF Arsimi

Team pages: KF Bashkimi · KF Arsimi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

KF Bashkimi1.61

KF Arsimi1.91

1X2

32% 24% 44%

KF Bashkimi Draw KF Arsimi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Bashkimi 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLWLL

KF Arsimi 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDLDDL

Head-to-head

KF Bashkimi 2–2–2 KF Arsimi (6 last)

KF Arsimi1-0KF Bashkimi
KF Arsimi1-1KF Bashkimi
KF Arsimi4-2KF Bashkimi
KF Bashkimi1-1KF Arsimi
KF Bashkimi2-1KF Arsimi
KF Arsimi0-1KF Bashkimi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Bashkimi 1434 · KF Arsimi 1499

	KF Bashkimi	Draw	KF Arsimi
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KF Arsimi (rating 1434 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Bashkimi	KF Arsimi
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.6	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 2.8	1.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:00 +23’	2.88	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Bashkimi 2–2–2 KF Arsimi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	1-0 HT 0-0	KF Bashkimi
10/05/26 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	1-1 HT 1-0	KF Bashkimi
03/11/25 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	4-2 HT 2-1	KF Bashkimi
09/08/25 North Macedonia First League	KF Bashkimi	1-1 HT 0-1	KF Arsimi
01/03/25 North Macedonia Second League	KF Bashkimi	2-1	KF Arsimi
01/09/24 North Macedonia Second League	KF Arsimi	0-1	KF Bashkimi

Standings · North Macedonia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shkendija Tetovo	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
2	FC Struga Trim & Lum	11	7	2	2	26	7	23
3	Tikves Kavadarci	12	5	6	1	25	10	21
4	Vardar Skopje	11	6	3	2	17	9	21
5	FK Sileks	11	4	4	3	19	11	16
6	KF Shkendija Haracine	12	4	3	5	8	15	15
7	Bregalnica Stip	11	4	1	6	15	20	13
8	KF Arsimi	11	2	4	5	11	25	10
9	KF Bashkimi	11	2	1	8	10	32	7
10	FK Skopje	11	0	3	8	5	21	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Bashkimi	KF Arsimi
Tikves Kavadarci	1-3 L	1-1 D
FK Sileks	0-3 L	1-1 D
FC Struga Trim & Lum	2-1 W	0-6 L
Shkendija Tetovo	1-4 L	2-2 D
Vardar Skopje	3-3 D	0-2 L
FK Skopje	2-1 W	0-0 D
KF Shkendija Haracine	1-2 L	2-0 W
Bregalnica Stip	0-3 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KF Arsimi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Bashkimi

LLLLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-3	3	1	L
18/10	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
12/10	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-1	2-1	0	6	W
18/09	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
12/09	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	2-1	3-3	5	5	D
05/09	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	1-0	2-1	0	10	W
30/08	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
14/08	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
08/08	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-5	3	2	L

KF Arsimi

LWWDLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	1-2	3-4	6	7	L
19/10	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
10/10	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
21/09	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-6	5	4	L
11/09	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
07/09	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-2	1	8	L
29/08	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
22/08	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
14/08	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
08/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-4	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Bashkimi vs KF Arsimi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KF Arsimi win (44%). Probabilities: KF Bashkimi 32%, draw 24%, KF Arsimi 44%.

How many goals are expected in KF Bashkimi vs KF Arsimi?

The model expects 3.52 goals (KF Bashkimi 1.61 · KF Arsimi 1.91), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Bashkimi vs KF Arsimi?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.