Football · Denmark Division 1 · 24/07, 19:00
Prediction: AaB vs Hillerød
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
AaB1.68
Hillerød1.47
1X2
AaB
Draw
Hillerød
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AaB
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Hillerød
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AaB
3–2–0
Hillerød
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AaB 1484 · Hillerød 1484
| AaB | Draw | Hillerød | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours AaB: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AaB | Hillerød | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AaB 3–2–0 Hillerød
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Denmark Division 1 | AaB | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Hillerød |
| 26/07/25 Denmark Division 1 | Hillerød | 2-2 HT 1-2 | AaB |
| 04/07/25 Europe Friendlies | Hillerød | 1-4 HT 1-1 | AaB |
| 16/03/24 Denmark Division 1 | Hillerød | 1-2 HT 1-1 | AaB |
| 27/08/23 Denmark Division 1 | AaB | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Hillerød |
Standings · Denmark Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AaB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aarhus Fremad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AB Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Esbjerg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Fredericia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | HB Køge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hillerød | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hobro IK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hvidovre IF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kolding IF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vejle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vendsyssel FF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AaB
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Silkeborg IF Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Randers FC Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 03/07 | Viborg Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | HB Køge Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Middelfart Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | HB Køge Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
Hillerød
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Vejle Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Odense BK Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Kolding IF Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Esbjerg Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 09/05 | AC Horsens Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Lyngby Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Kolding IF Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 21/04 | Lyngby Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 17/04 | Esbjerg Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AaB vs Hillerød?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AaB win (42%). Probabilities: AaB 42%, draw 26%, Hillerød 33%.
How many goals are expected in AaB vs Hillerød?
The model expects 3.16 goals (AaB 1.68 · Hillerød 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in AaB vs Hillerød?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.