Football · Denmark Division 1 · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: FC Fredericia vs HB Køge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

FC Fredericia1.87

HB Køge0.9

1X2

59% 24% 17%

FC Fredericia Draw HB Køge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Fredericia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLDLWWWW

HB Køge 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLLLWL

Head-to-head

FC Fredericia 2–3–1 HB Køge (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Fredericia 1533 · HB Køge 1498

	FC Fredericia	Draw	HB Køge
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Fredericia: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Fredericia	HB Køge
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.59
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.26 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +1’	1.53	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +1’	1.59	4.26	4.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Fredericia 2–3–1 HB Køge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/25 Denmark Division 1	FC Fredericia	1-2 HT 1-1	HB Køge
01/09/24 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	3-4 HT 2-3	FC Fredericia
16/03/24 Denmark Division 1	FC Fredericia	2-2 HT 0-1	HB Køge
27/08/23 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Fredericia
13/05/23 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Fredericia
16/04/23 Denmark Division 1	FC Fredericia	6-1 HT 2-0	HB Køge

Standings · Denmark Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AaB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aarhus Fremad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AB Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Esbjerg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Fredericia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	HB Køge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hillerød	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hobro IK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hvidovre IF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kolding IF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vejle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vendsyssel FF	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Fredericia

DDDLDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Esbjerg Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
15/07	CD Mafra Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-2	8	2	W
04/07	Holstein Kiel Club Friendly List	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
17/05	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-1	4	2	W
10/05	Vejle Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
03/05	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-3	6	4	D
26/04	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
23/04	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
19/04	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	4	1	D
13/04	Vejle Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	9	4	D

HB Køge

WDWDWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Naestved Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
11/07	FC Roskilde Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/07	Hvidovre IF Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
30/05	AaB Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
16/05	Middelfart Denmark Division 1	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
09/05	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/05	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	1-2	3-2	5	6	W
26/04	AaB Denmark Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/04	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Fredericia vs HB Køge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Fredericia win (59%). Probabilities: FC Fredericia 59%, draw 24%, HB Køge 17%.

How many goals are expected in FC Fredericia vs HB Køge?

The model expects 2.77 goals (FC Fredericia 1.87 · HB Køge 0.9), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Fredericia vs HB Køge?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.