Football · Scotland SWPL Cup Women · 05/08, 20:30

Prediction: Dundee Utd (W) vs Aberdeen (W)

Team pages: Dundee Utd (W) · Aberdeen (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Dundee Utd (W)1.37

Aberdeen (W)2.32

1X2

20% 22% 57%

Dundee Utd (W) Draw Aberdeen (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee Utd (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLLDL

Aberdeen (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Dundee Utd (W) 0–2–4 Aberdeen (W) (6 last)

Dundee Utd (W)0-5Aberdeen (W)
Aberdeen (W)2-0Dundee Utd (W)
Dundee Utd (W)1-2Aberdeen (W)
Aberdeen (W)1-1Dundee Utd (W)
Aberdeen (W)1-1Dundee Utd (W)
Dundee Utd (W)1-5Aberdeen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee Utd (W) 1438 · Aberdeen (W) 1458

	Dundee Utd (W)	Draw	Aberdeen (W)
Our model	21%	21%	58%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aberdeen (W): 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee Utd (W)	Aberdeen (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.80

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +7’	4.50	3.80	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee Utd (W) 0–2–4 Aberdeen (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Dundee Utd (W)	0-5 HT 0-2	Aberdeen (W)
14/03/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Dundee Utd (W)
17/11/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Dundee Utd (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Aberdeen (W)
08/09/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Dundee Utd (W)
15/05/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Dundee Utd (W)
21/04/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Dundee Utd (W)	1-5	Aberdeen (W)

Standings · Scotland SWPL Cup Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hamilton (W)	2	2	0	0	10	1	6
2	Montrose LFC (W)	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
3	Gartcairn FC (W)	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
4	Kilmarnock (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Motherwell (W)	2	1	0	1	8	4	3
6	Livingston (W)	2	1	0	1	4	9	3
7	Spartans (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	3
8	St Johnstone (W)	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
9	Renfrew Women	2	0	1	1	6	12	2
10	Dundee Utd (W)	2	0	1	1	5	8	1
11	Aberdeen (W)	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
12	Queens Park (W)	2	0	1	1	2	4	0
13	Boroughmuir Thistle (W)	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
14	Falkirk (W)	2	0	0	2	2	9	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dundee Utd (W)

WLLDLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Kilmarnock (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/07	Renfrew Women Scotland SWPL Cup Women	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/05	Spartans (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/05	Queens Park (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Kilmarnock (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
29/04	Boroughmuir Thistle (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/04	Gartcairn FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
05/04	Queens Park (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/04	Spartans (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
22/03	Gartcairn FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	2-0	–	–	W

Aberdeen (W)

LLWLLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	St Johnstone (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women	0-2	3-4	6	0	L
26/07	Hamilton (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/05	Queens Park (W) Scotland Premier League Play-Offs Women	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
17/05	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
10/05	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	4-0	9	0	W
26/04	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
05/04	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
22/03	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
15/03	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-2	3-4	5	2	L
22/02	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee Utd (W) vs Aberdeen (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberdeen (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Dundee Utd (W) 20%, draw 22%, Aberdeen (W) 57%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee Utd (W) vs Aberdeen (W)?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Dundee Utd (W) 1.37 · Aberdeen (W) 2.32), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee Utd (W) vs Aberdeen (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.