Football · Scotland SWPL Cup Women · 05/08, 21:00
Prediction: St Johnstone (W) vs Montrose LFC (W)
Team pages: St Johnstone (W) · Montrose LFC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.34Total
St Johnstone (W)1.17
Montrose LFC (W)3.17
1X2
St Johnstone (W)
Draw
Montrose LFC (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
St Johnstone (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Montrose LFC (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Johnstone (W)
0–2
Montrose LFC (W)
(2 last)
- St Johnstone (W)2-3Montrose LFC (W)
- Montrose LFC (W)2-0St Johnstone (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Johnstone (W) 1478 · Montrose LFC (W) 1537
| St Johnstone (W) | Draw | Montrose LFC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 7% | 11% | 81% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.34 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montrose LFC (W) (rating 1478 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Montrose LFC (W): 2-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Johnstone (W) | Montrose LFC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.8 | 2.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.6 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Johnstone (W) 0–0–2 Montrose LFC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/23 Scotland Women Premier League 2 | St Johnstone (W) | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Montrose LFC (W) |
| 23/10/22 Scotland Women Premier League 2 | Montrose LFC (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | St Johnstone (W) |
Standings · Scotland SWPL Cup Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Montrose LFC (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Gartcairn FC (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Kilmarnock (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Motherwell (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Livingston (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| 7 | Spartans (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | St Johnstone (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 9 | Renfrew Women | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| 10 | Dundee Utd (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 11 | Aberdeen (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 | Queens Park (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Boroughmuir Thistle (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Falkirk (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Johnstone (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Aberdeen (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-3 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 26/07 | Livingston (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | East Fife (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Livingston (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Stirling Uni FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 05/04 | Livingston (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
– | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | Stirling Uni FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 5-4 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | East Fife (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/02 | Stirling Uni FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/02 | Dundee Utd (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
Montrose LFC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Falkirk (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Motherwell (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Rangers (W) Scotland Women FA Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
6-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/02 | Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Johnstone (W) vs Montrose LFC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Montrose LFC (W) win (79%). Probabilities: St Johnstone (W) 8%, draw 13%, Montrose LFC (W) 79%.
How many goals are expected in St Johnstone (W) vs Montrose LFC (W)?
The model expects 4.34 goals (St Johnstone (W) 1.17 · Montrose LFC (W) 3.17), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in St Johnstone (W) vs Montrose LFC (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.