Football · Scotland SWPL Cup Women · 05/08, 20:45

Prediction: Hamilton (W) vs Livingston (W)

Team pages: Livingston (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Hamilton (W)3.24

Livingston (W)1.24

1X2

75% 15% 9%

Hamilton (W) Draw Livingston (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hamilton (W) 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Livingston (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hamilton (W) 3–0 Livingston (W) (3 last)

Livingston (W)2-3Hamilton (W)
Hamilton (W)5-1Livingston (W)
Livingston (W)0-3Hamilton (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hamilton (W) 1426 · Livingston (W) 1544

	Hamilton (W)	Draw	Livingston (W)
Our model	76%	14%	11%
Market	75%	16%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Livingston (W) (rating 1426 vs 1544).
H2H favours Hamilton (W): 3-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hamilton (W)	Livingston (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 4	3.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 2.4	0.3 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/11/78%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.2	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.1	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.93

2 (+2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +1’	1.20	5.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamilton (W) 3–0–0 Livingston (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/25 Scotland Women Premier League 2	Livingston (W)	2-3 HT 1-2	Hamilton (W)
19/01/25 Scotland Women Premier League 2	Hamilton (W)	5-1 HT 4-0	Livingston (W)
20/10/24 Scotland Women Premier League 2	Livingston (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Hamilton (W)

Standings · Scotland SWPL Cup Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hamilton (W)	2	2	0	0	10	1	6
2	Montrose LFC (W)	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
3	Gartcairn FC (W)	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
4	Kilmarnock (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Motherwell (W)	2	1	0	1	8	4	3
6	Livingston (W)	2	1	0	1	4	9	3
7	Spartans (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	3
8	St Johnstone (W)	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
9	Renfrew Women	2	0	1	1	6	12	2
10	Dundee Utd (W)	2	0	1	1	5	8	1
11	Aberdeen (W)	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
12	Queens Park (W)	2	0	1	1	2	4	0
13	Boroughmuir Thistle (W)	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
14	Falkirk (W)	2	0	0	2	2	9	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hamilton (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Renfrew Women Scotland SWPL Cup Women	3-0	8-0	12	0	W
26/07	Aberdeen (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/05	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
10/05	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-4	1	0	L
26/04	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
05/04	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-4	1	0	L
22/03	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	2-3	5	5	L
15/03	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-6	0-6	4	1	L
22/02	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-2	2-3	1	3	L
08/02	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-8	0-11	1	1	L

Livingston (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Motherwell (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women	0-5	1-7	3	1	L
26/07	St Johnstone (W) Scotland SWPL Cup Women	1-1	3-2	6	0	W
17/05	Stirling Uni FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	6-1	–	–	W
10/05	St Johnstone (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	5-0	–	–	W
26/04	East Fife (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/04	St Johnstone (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	5-2	–	–	W
22/03	East Fife (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	4-0	–	–	W
15/03	Stirling Uni FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	–	6-1	–	–	W
22/02	Gartcairn FC (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
08/02	Spartans (W) Scotland Women Premier League 2	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hamilton (W) vs Livingston (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamilton (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Hamilton (W) 75%, draw 15%, Livingston (W) 9%.

How many goals are expected in Hamilton (W) vs Livingston (W)?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Hamilton (W) 3.24 · Livingston (W) 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hamilton (W) vs Livingston (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.