Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 18/07, 00:30
Prediction: Marilia vs Gremio Prudente
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Marilia1.42
Gremio Prudente0.78
1X2
Marilia
Draw
Gremio Prudente
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Marilia
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Gremio Prudente
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marilia
2–2–0
Gremio Prudente
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marilia 1511 · Gremio Prudente 1479
| Marilia | Draw | Gremio Prudente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 51% | 29% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Marilia: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marilia | Gremio Prudente | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marilia 2–2–0 Gremio Prudente
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 | Gremio Prudente | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Marilia |
| 19/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Gremio Prudente | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Marilia |
| 16/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Marilia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gremio Prudente |
| 26/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 | Marilia | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Gremio Prudente |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bandeirante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Linense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gremio Prudente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marilia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marilia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 05/04 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/03 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/03 | AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/03 | XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/03 | Uniao Suzano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/03 | Rio Branco SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Gremio Prudente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03 | EC Taubate Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 28/02 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/02 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
3-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/02 | Linense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 18/02 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/02 | Santo Andre SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/02 | Monte Azul SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 07/02 | Sao Bento Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 31/01 | CA Votuporanguense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 28/01 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marilia vs Gremio Prudente?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marilia win (51%). Probabilities: Marilia 51%, draw 29%, Gremio Prudente 20%.
How many goals are expected in Marilia vs Gremio Prudente?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Marilia 1.42 · Gremio Prudente 0.78), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Marilia vs Gremio Prudente?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.