Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: Paulista FC vs Primavera SP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Paulista FC1.11
Primavera SP1.28
1X2
Paulista FC
Draw
Primavera SP
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Paulista FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Primavera SP
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Paulista FC
2–4
Primavera SP
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paulista FC 1514 · Primavera SP 1495
| Paulista FC | Draw | Primavera SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 32% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Primavera SP: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Paulista FC | Primavera SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.2 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Paulista FC 2–0–4 Primavera SP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Primavera SP | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Paulista FC |
| 24/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Paulista FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Primavera SP |
| 03/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Primavera SP | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Paulista FC |
| 28/06/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Paulista FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Primavera SP |
| 07/03/20 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 | Paulista FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Primavera SP |
| 29/09/18 Brazil Paulista Serie B | Primavera SP | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Paulista FC |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Primavera SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Osasco Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paulista FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paulista FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/03 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Catanduva FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 14/03 | Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/03 | Uniao Barbarense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 07/03 | Uniao Suzano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 05/03 | Bandeirante Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 01/03 | AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 25/02 | Rio Preto Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 21/02 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
Primavera SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02 | Ceara Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/02 | Araguaina Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/02 | Noroeste Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 08/02 | Sao Paulo Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 01/02 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/01 | Capivariano SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/01 | Botafogo SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 17/01 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
2-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 14/01 | Mirassol Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/01 | Guarani Brazil Campeonato Paulista |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paulista FC vs Primavera SP?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Primavera SP win (39%). Probabilities: Paulista FC 30%, draw 31%, Primavera SP 39%.
How many goals are expected in Paulista FC vs Primavera SP?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Paulista FC 1.11 · Primavera SP 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Paulista FC vs Primavera SP?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.