Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 19/07, 15:00
Prediction: EC Sao Bernardo vs Santo Andre SP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
EC Sao Bernardo1.46
Santo Andre SP1.37
1X2
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw
Santo Andre SP
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
EC Sao Bernardo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Santo Andre SP
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
EC Sao Bernardo
2–2
Santo Andre SP
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · EC Sao Bernardo 1503 · Santo Andre SP 1471
| EC Sao Bernardo | Draw | Santo Andre SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EC Sao Bernardo | Santo Andre SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.5 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Sao Bernardo 2–0–2 Santo Andre SP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | EC Sao Bernardo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Santo Andre SP |
| 05/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Santo Andre SP | 0-1 HT 0-0 | EC Sao Bernardo |
| 04/08/19 Brazil Paulista Cup | Santo Andre SP | 0-3 HT 0-1 | EC Sao Bernardo |
| 29/06/19 Brazil Paulista Cup | EC Sao Bernardo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Santo Andre SP |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santo Andre SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | EC Sao Bernardo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sao Caetano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | São José dos Campos FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EC Sao Bernardo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04 | Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 28/03 | Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 15/03 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 12/03 | Bandeirante Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/03 | Itapirense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/03 | Rio Branco SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/03 | Rio Claro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 25/02 | Uniao Barbarense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 21/02 | Paulista FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Santo Andre SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03 | Sao Bento Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/03 | Linense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/02 | Sertaozinho FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 22/02 | São José dos Campos FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 19/02 | EC Taubate Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 14/02 | Gremio Prudente Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/02 | Osasco Sporting Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 07/02 | Ituano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 01/02 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/01 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in EC Sao Bernardo vs Santo Andre SP?
According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Sao Bernardo win (38%). Probabilities: EC Sao Bernardo 38%, draw 28%, Santo Andre SP 34%.
How many goals are expected in EC Sao Bernardo vs Santo Andre SP?
The model expects 2.82 goals (EC Sao Bernardo 1.46 · Santo Andre SP 1.37), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in EC Sao Bernardo vs Santo Andre SP?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.