Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 18/07, 21:00
Prediction: Comercial FC vs Noroeste
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Comercial FC0.98
Noroeste1.62
1X2
Comercial FC
Draw
Noroeste
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Comercial FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Noroeste
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Comercial FC
0–2–4
Noroeste
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Comercial FC 1538 · Noroeste 1511
| Comercial FC | Draw | Noroeste | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Noroeste: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Comercial FC | Noroeste | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.7 | 3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.4 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Comercial FC 0–2–4 Noroeste
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Noroeste | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Comercial FC |
| 03/09/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Noroeste | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Comercial FC |
| 30/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Comercial FC | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Noroeste |
| 11/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Comercial FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Noroeste |
| 03/09/22 Brazil Paulista Cup | Noroeste | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Comercial FC |
| 30/07/22 Brazil Paulista Cup | Comercial FC | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Noroeste |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comercial FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Noroeste | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | XV Piracicaba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Uniao Sao Joao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Comercial FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04 | Tanabi Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Jabaquara SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/03 | Inter de Bebedouro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 21/03 | Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 19/03 | Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Aracatuba Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/03 | Nacional SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 04/03 | Sao Caetano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 28/02 | EC Lemense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 25/02 | Colorado Caieiras FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Noroeste
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Comercial FC vs Noroeste?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Noroeste win (51%). Probabilities: Comercial FC 22%, draw 27%, Noroeste 51%.
How many goals are expected in Comercial FC vs Noroeste?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Comercial FC 0.98 · Noroeste 1.62), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Comercial FC vs Noroeste?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.