Football · Italy Serie A · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Fiorentina vs Como

Team pages: Fiorentina · Como

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Fiorentina1.22
Como1.66
1X2
27% 26% 46%
Fiorentina Draw Como
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Fiorentina 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
LDWDLLLWDL
Como 6-3-1 (W-D-L)
DWWWDWWWLD
Head-to-head
Fiorentina 2–3 Como (5 last)
  • Como1-2Fiorentina
  • Fiorentina1-3Como
  • Fiorentina1-2Como
  • Fiorentina0-2Como
  • Como0-2Fiorentina
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fiorentina 1484 · Como 1552
FiorentinaDrawComo
Our model27%27%46%
Market27%26%46%
Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Como (rating 1484 vs 1552).
  • H2H favours Como: 3-0-2.
  • High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

FiorentinaComo
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 1.91.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 10.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/20/50%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.7 / 44 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.4 / 03 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fiorentina 2–0–3 Como

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DateHomeScoreAway
14/02/26
Italy Serie A
Como1-2
HT 0-1
Fiorentina
27/01/26
Coppa Italia
Fiorentina1-3
HT 1-1
Como
21/09/25
Italy Serie A
Fiorentina1-2
HT 1-0
Como
16/02/25
Italy Serie A
Fiorentina0-2
HT 0-1
Como
24/11/24
Italy Serie A
Como0-2
HT 0-1
Fiorentina

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Inter Milan 6510 18816
2 Lazio 6510 11416
3 Roma 6420 14314
4 Frosinone 7412 13913
5 Cagliari 6411 6313
6 AC Milan 6330 11512
7 Juventus 6321 9511
8 Como 6321 9611
9 Napoli 7313 10710
10 Atalanta 6303 889
11 Sassuolo 7223 12148
12 Torino 6213 797
13 Lecce 6204 6126
14 Bologna 6123 575
15 Udinese 6114 9134
16 Monza 6114 9154
17 Genoa 6114 5114
18 Parma 6114 4104
19 Fiorentina 6114 7144
20 Venezia 7106 6163

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentFiorentinaComo
Genoa 1-2 L 4-1 W
Napoli 1-1 D 2-1 W
Frosinone 0-3 L 0-2 L
Roma 0-4 L 0-0 D
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 3 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Como (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fiorentina

LDWDLLLWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/10 Genoa
Italy Serie A
0-2 1-2 48 L
20/09 Napoli
Italy Serie A
0-1 1-1 43 D
11/09 Venezia
Italy Serie A
2-1 4-2 43 W
05/09 Torino
Italy Serie A
0-0 1-2 30 L
29/08 Frosinone
Italy Serie A
0-2 0-3 86 L
24/08 Roma
Italy Serie A
0-1 0-4 34 L
22/05 Atalanta
Italy Serie A
1-0 1-1 32 D
17/05 Juventus
Italy Serie A
1-0 2-0 24 W
10/05 Genoa
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-0 40 D
04/05 Roma
Italy Serie A
0-3 0-4 54 L

Como

DWWWDWWWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/10 Roma
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-0 66 D
20/09 Frosinone
Italy Serie A
0-2 0-2 85 L
14/09 Parma
Italy Serie A
1-0 2-1 111 W
04/09 Genoa
Italy Serie A
3-1 4-1 43 W
30/08 Napoli
Italy Serie A
2-1 2-1 71 W
22/08 Udinese
Italy Serie A
0-1 1-1 103 D
24/05 Cremonese
Italy Serie A
1-0 4-1 47 W
17/05 Parma
Italy Serie A
0-0 1-0 152 W
10/05 Verona
Italy Serie A
0-0 1-0 72 W
02/05 Napoli
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-0 32 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fiorentina vs Como?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Como win (46%). Probabilities: Fiorentina 27%, draw 26%, Como 46%.

How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Como?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Fiorentina 1.22 · Como 1.66), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Como?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.