Football · Denmark Superligaen · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs Brondby

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
AGF Aarhus1.64
Brondby1.34
1X2
43% 26% 30%
AGF Aarhus Draw Brondby
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AGF Aarhus 5-4-1 (W-D-L)
DLDDWWWDWW
Brondby 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
WLDLWDWDWL
Head-to-head
AGF Aarhus 2–2–2 Brondby (6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1558 · Brondby 1508
AGF AarhusDrawBrondby
Our model43%26%30%
Market43%26%30%
Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGF Aarhus (rating 1558 vs 1508).
  • Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

AGF AarhusBrondby
Goals for / against (FT)2 / 0.82.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.30.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/40/10%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.3 / 5.52.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.5 / 04 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 222 Brondby

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DateHomeScoreAway
10/05/26
Denmark Superligaen
Brondby0-2
HT 0-2
AGF Aarhus
22/03/26
Denmark Superligaen
AGF Aarhus0-0
HT 0-0
Brondby
19/10/25
Denmark Superligaen
Brondby3-3
HT 1-0
AGF Aarhus
21/09/25
Denmark Superligaen
AGF Aarhus1-0
HT 1-0
Brondby
25/05/25
Denmark Superligaen
AGF Aarhus2-3
HT 2-2
Brondby
07/04/25
Denmark Superligaen
Brondby2-1
HT 1-0
AGF Aarhus

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#Team PWL GFGAPts
1 AC Horsens 000 000
1 AGF Aarhus 000 000
1 Brondby 000 000
1 FC Copenhagen 000 000
1 Midtjylland 000 000
1 FC Nordsjaelland 000 000
1 Lyngby 000 000
1 Odense BK 000 000
1 Randers FC 000 000
1 Silkeborg IF 000 000
1 Sonderjyske 000 000
1 Viborg 000 000

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAGF AarhusBrondby
Viborg 1-1 D 1-0 W
Sonderjyske 2-1 W 0-3 L
Midtjylland 0-0 D 3-2 W
FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 D 3-3 D
Record vs common 1 W 3 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brondby (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF Aarhus

DLDDWWWDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/07 AC Horsens
Europe Friendlies
0-0 2-0 14 W
05/07 Motherwell
Europe Friendlies
1-0 4-0 63 W
27/06 Viborg
Europe Friendlies
1-1 1-1 131 D
17/05 Viborg
Denmark Superligaen
3-1 6-2 34 W
10/05 Brondby
Denmark Superligaen
2-0 2-0 46 W
03/05 Sonderjyske
Denmark Superligaen
0-0 2-1 92 W
26/04 Midtjylland
Denmark Superligaen
0-0 0-0 63 D
23/04 FC Nordsjaelland
Denmark Superligaen
1-0 1-1 32 D
20/04 Midtjylland
Denmark Superligaen
1-0 1-2 54 L
10/04 FC Nordsjaelland
Denmark Superligaen
0-1 1-1 56 D

Brondby

WLDLWDWDWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/07 Hibernian
Europe Friendlies
1-2 1-2 41 L
11/07 Odense BK
Europe Friendlies
2-0 4-0 74 W
04/07 FC Nordsjaelland
Europe Friendlies
1-1 3-3 01 D
28/06 Hvidovre IF
Europe Friendlies
4-1 8-1 50 W
21/05 FC Copenhagen
Denmark Superligaen
0-0 1-1 811 D
17/05 Midtjylland
Denmark Superligaen
0-2 3-2 15 W
10/05 AGF Aarhus
Denmark Superligaen
0-2 0-2 56 L
01/05 FC Nordsjaelland
Denmark Superligaen
0-0 1-1 55 D
26/04 Sonderjyske
Denmark Superligaen
0-2 0-3 63 L
22/04 Viborg
Denmark Superligaen
0-0 1-0 36 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGF Aarhus win (43%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 43%, draw 26%, Brondby 30%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

The model expects 2.98 goals (AGF Aarhus 1.64 · Brondby 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.