Football · Denmark Superligaen · 26/07, 14:00
Prediction: Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.47Total
Sonderjyske1.2
Midtjylland2.27
1X2
Sonderjyske
Draw
Midtjylland
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Sonderjyske
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Midtjylland
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sonderjyske
2–1–3
Midtjylland
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sonderjyske 1489 · Midtjylland 1576
| Sonderjyske | Draw | Midtjylland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Market | 18% | 23% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midtjylland (rating 1489 vs 1576).
- H2H favours Midtjylland: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sonderjyske | Midtjylland | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.5 | 2.8 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sonderjyske 2–1–3 Midtjylland
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 Denmark Superligaen | Sonderjyske | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Midtjylland |
| 04/04/26 Denmark Superligaen | Midtjylland | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Sonderjyske |
| 23/11/25 Denmark Superligaen | Sonderjyske | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Midtjylland |
| 28/07/25 Denmark Superligaen | Midtjylland | 6-2 HT 3-1 | Sonderjyske |
| 20/10/24 Denmark Superligaen | Sonderjyske | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Midtjylland |
| 24/08/24 Denmark Superligaen | Midtjylland | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Sonderjyske |
Standings · Denmark Superligaen
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Horsens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AGF Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brondby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Nordsjaelland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lyngby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Odense BK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Randers FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Silkeborg IF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sonderjyske | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Viborg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sonderjyske | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| FC Nordsjaelland | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Viborg | 1-0 W | 3-3 D |
| AGF Aarhus | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Brondby | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sonderjyske
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Kolding IF Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/07 | Viking FK Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/06 | Randers FC Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Viborg Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/04 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
0-3 | 0-6 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Viborg Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Midtjylland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Odense BK Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | Cardiff Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Silkeborg IF Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Malmo FF Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Lillestrom Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
2-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | FC Copenhagen Denmark Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Viborg Denmark Superligaen |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Midtjylland win (60%). Probabilities: Sonderjyske 18%, draw 22%, Midtjylland 60%.
How many goals are expected in Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland?
The model expects 3.47 goals (Sonderjyske 1.2 · Midtjylland 2.27), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.