Football · Denmark Superligaen · 02/09, 20:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland

Team pages: AGF Aarhus · Midtjylland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

AGF Aarhus1.25

Midtjylland1.52

1X2

31% 27% 43%

AGF Aarhus Draw Midtjylland

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF Aarhus 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDDLDL

Midtjylland 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWDWD

Head-to-head

AGF Aarhus 0–4–2 Midtjylland (6 last)

AGF Aarhus0-0Midtjylland
Midtjylland2-1AGF Aarhus
Midtjylland1-1AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus0-1Midtjylland
Midtjylland1-1AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus0-0Midtjylland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1496 · Midtjylland 1607

	AGF Aarhus	Draw	Midtjylland
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midtjylland (rating 1496 vs 1607).
H2H favours Midtjylland: 2-4-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF Aarhus	Midtjylland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.7	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.22 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.68
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +4’	3.00	3.60	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:11 +28’	3.31	3.74	2.03
20:25 +2’	3.21▼	3.69▼	2.14▲
22:14 +9’	3.21	3.72▲	2.13▼
16:38 +2’	3.22▲	3.68▼	2.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 0–4–2 Midtjylland

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	0-0 HT 0-0	Midtjylland
20/04/26 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	2-1 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus
08/03/26 Denmark Cup	Midtjylland	1-1 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus
12/02/26 Denmark Cup	AGF Aarhus	0-1 HT 0-0	Midtjylland
03/11/25 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	1-1 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus
03/08/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	0-0 HT 0-0	Midtjylland

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nordsjaelland	5	4	1	0	9	2	13
2	Viborg	6	4	1	1	10	4	13
3	Brondby	6	4	1	1	11	7	13
4	Midtjylland	5	3	2	0	8	5	11
5	FC Copenhagen	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
6	AC Horsens	6	2	1	3	8	10	7
7	Randers FC	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
8	Odense BK	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
9	Silkeborg IF	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
10	AGF Aarhus	5	0	3	2	7	9	3
11	Lyngby	6	0	3	3	7	11	3
12	Sonderjyske	5	0	1	4	4	10	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF Aarhus	Midtjylland
Randers FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Viborg	1-2 L	3-3 D
Lyngby	2-2 D	1-1 D
Brondby	1-1 D	2-3 L
Sonderjyske	2-1 W	3-2 W
FC Nordsjaelland	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Midtjylland (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF Aarhus

DDWWWDDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D
14/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
01/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
25/07	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
17/05	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	3-1	6-2	3	4	W
10/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/05	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
26/04	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
23/04	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	3	2	D

Midtjylland

WDDDLWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
26/07	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
17/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-3	5	5	L
10/05	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/05	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-3	8	3	D
26/04	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
23/04	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Midtjylland win (43%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 31%, draw 27%, Midtjylland 43%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

The model expects 2.78 goals (AGF Aarhus 1.25 · Midtjylland 1.52), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.