Football · Denmark Superligaen · 07/09, 19:00

Prediction: Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland

Team pages: Midtjylland · FC Nordsjaelland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Midtjylland1.61

FC Nordsjaelland1.22

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Midtjylland Draw FC Nordsjaelland

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Midtjylland 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWDWD

FC Nordsjaelland 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDDWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Midtjylland 2–1–3 FC Nordsjaelland (6 last)

FC Nordsjaelland0-0Midtjylland
Midtjylland0-1FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland2-1Midtjylland
Midtjylland5-1FC Nordsjaelland
Midtjylland6-0FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland1-0Midtjylland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Midtjylland 1600 · FC Nordsjaelland 1629

	Midtjylland	Draw	FC Nordsjaelland
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Nordsjaelland: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Midtjylland	FC Nordsjaelland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	3.6 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +12’	2.00	3.60	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Midtjylland 2–1–3 FC Nordsjaelland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	0-0 HT 0-0	Midtjylland
15/03/26 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Nordsjaelland
14/12/25 Denmark Cup	FC Nordsjaelland	2-1 HT 1-0	Midtjylland
04/12/25 Denmark Cup	Midtjylland	5-1 HT 3-0	FC Nordsjaelland
30/11/25 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	6-0 HT 4-0	FC Nordsjaelland
14/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	1-0 HT 1-0	Midtjylland

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nordsjaelland	5	4	1	0	9	2	13
2	Viborg	6	4	1	1	10	4	13
3	Brondby	6	4	1	1	11	7	13
4	FC Copenhagen	5	4	0	1	13	8	12
5	Midtjylland	5	3	2	0	8	5	11
6	AC Horsens	6	2	1	3	8	10	7
7	Randers FC	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
8	Odense BK	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
9	Silkeborg IF	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
10	AGF Aarhus	5	0	3	2	7	9	3
11	Lyngby	6	0	3	3	7	11	3
12	Sonderjyske	6	0	1	5	5	13	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Midtjylland	FC Nordsjaelland
Silkeborg IF	1-1 D	1-0 W
Randers FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
AC Horsens	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sonderjyske	3-2 W	3-0 W
Brondby	2-3 L	3-1 W
Viborg	3-3 D	0-1 L
AGF Aarhus	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Nordsjaelland (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Midtjylland

WDDDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
26/07	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
17/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-3	5	5	L
10/05	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/05	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-3	8	3	D
26/04	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
23/04	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	8	5	W

FC Nordsjaelland

DLDDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
23/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
16/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
26/07	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-1	13	2	D
17/05	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
10/05	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
01/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/04	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
23/04	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Midtjylland win (46%). Probabilities: Midtjylland 46%, draw 26%, FC Nordsjaelland 28%.

How many goals are expected in Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Midtjylland 1.61 · FC Nordsjaelland 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.