Football · Denmark Superligaen · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus

Team pages: FC Nordsjaelland · AGF Aarhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FC Nordsjaelland1.85

AGF Aarhus1.19

1X2

52% 24% 24%

FC Nordsjaelland Draw AGF Aarhus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Nordsjaelland 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWWWLD

AGF Aarhus 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLDLLD

Head-to-head

FC Nordsjaelland 1–2–3 AGF Aarhus (6 last)

FC Nordsjaelland1-1AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus1-1FC Nordsjaelland
AGF Aarhus1-0FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland1-2AGF Aarhus
FC Nordsjaelland2-0AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus2-0FC Nordsjaelland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Nordsjaelland 1598 · AGF Aarhus 1499

	FC Nordsjaelland	Draw	AGF Aarhus
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Nordsjaelland (rating 1598 vs 1499).
H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Nordsjaelland	AGF Aarhus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	2.9 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 05:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.83
X	3.60 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.13 ★
2	3.00 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.96

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +3404’	2.10	3.60	3.00
15:36 +5’	1.80▼	4.00▲	3.75▲
07:26 +3’	1.75▼	4.10▲	4.00▲
18:31 +1’	1.80▲	4.00▼	3.80▼
05:10 +4’	1.80	4.00	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +5’	1.79	4.01	3.87
20:25 +75’	1.79	4.08▲	3.98▲
07:15 +14’	1.73▼	4.17▲	4.24▲
09:40 +36’	1.81▲	4.08▼	3.94▼
18:25 +6’	1.82▲	4.06▼	3.90▼
18:47 +51’	1.83▲	4.13▲	3.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Nordsjaelland 1–2–3 AGF Aarhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	1-1 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus
10/04/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Nordsjaelland
24/10/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Nordsjaelland
28/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	1-2 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus
16/05/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	2-0 HT 1-0	AGF Aarhus
30/03/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Nordsjaelland

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	8	7	0	1	22	8	21
2	Midtjylland	7	4	3	0	12	7	15
3	FC Nordsjaelland	7	4	2	1	11	6	14
4	Viborg	7	4	1	2	10	6	13
5	Brondby	7	4	1	2	11	10	13
6	Randers FC	7	3	1	3	8	8	10
7	AC Horsens	8	3	1	4	13	14	10
8	Lyngby	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
9	Silkeborg IF	7	1	3	3	7	11	6
10	Odense BK	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
11	AGF Aarhus	7	0	4	3	9	13	4
12	Sonderjyske	7	0	1	6	7	18	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Nordsjaelland	AGF Aarhus
Midtjylland	2-2 D	0-2 L
Brondby	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sonderjyske	3-0 W	2-1 W
Silkeborg IF	1-0 W	2-2 D
Randers FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Nordsjaelland (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Nordsjaelland

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	3	1	D
03/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-2	0-2	0	5	L
30/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
23/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
16/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
26/07	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-1	13	2	D
17/05	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
10/05	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
01/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

AGF Aarhus

WWWDDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
02/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D
14/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
01/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
25/07	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
17/05	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	3-1	6-2	3	4	W
10/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/05	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Nordsjaelland win (52%). Probabilities: FC Nordsjaelland 52%, draw 24%, AGF Aarhus 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FC Nordsjaelland 1.85 · AGF Aarhus 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.