Football · Denmark Superligaen · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: Odense BK vs Midtjylland

Team pages: Odense BK · Midtjylland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Odense BK1.31

Midtjylland1.95

1X2

24% 24% 51%

Odense BK Draw Midtjylland

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Odense BK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDDLW

Midtjylland 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Odense BK 0–1–5 Midtjylland (6 last)

Midtjylland4-1Odense BK
Odense BK1-4Midtjylland
Midtjylland3-3Odense BK
Odense BK1-2Midtjylland
Midtjylland2-1Odense BK
Midtjylland4-2Odense BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Odense BK 1476 · Midtjylland 1627

	Odense BK	Draw	Midtjylland
Our model	25%	24%	51%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midtjylland (rating 1476 vs 1627).
H2H favours Midtjylland: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Odense BK	Midtjylland
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.92
X	3.90 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	1.65 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +3’	4.50	3.90	1.65
21:24 +11’	3.80▼	3.70▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +11’	3.90	4.07	1.77
20:18 +78’	3.92▲	4.10▲	1.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Odense BK 0–1–5 Midtjylland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Club Friendly List	Midtjylland	4-1 HT 3-1	Odense BK
15/02/26 Denmark Superligaen	Odense BK	1-4 HT 0-4	Midtjylland
20/07/25 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	3-3 HT 2-2	Odense BK
23/10/23 Denmark Superligaen	Odense BK	1-2 HT 1-1	Midtjylland
24/09/23 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	2-1 HT 0-0	Odense BK
03/06/23 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	4-2 HT 2-1	Odense BK

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	8	7	0	1	22	8	21
2	Midtjylland	8	5	3	0	16	8	18
3	FC Nordsjaelland	8	5	2	1	13	6	17
4	Viborg	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
5	Brondby	8	4	1	3	12	14	13
6	AC Horsens	8	3	1	4	13	14	10
7	Randers FC	8	3	1	4	9	10	10
8	Odense BK	8	2	2	4	7	13	8
9	Lyngby	8	1	4	3	10	12	7
10	Silkeborg IF	8	1	4	3	8	12	7
11	AGF Aarhus	8	0	4	4	9	15	4
12	Sonderjyske	8	0	2	6	8	19	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Odense BK	Midtjylland
Randers FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Lyngby	1-1 D	1-1 D
AGF Aarhus	2-2 D	2-0 W
AC Horsens	1-2 L	2-1 W
Silkeborg IF	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sonderjyske	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Midtjylland (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Odense BK

DLLWLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	11	4	W
06/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-2	0-5	6	4	L
30/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
23/08	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	2-1	2-2	0	6	D
16/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	9	1	L
10/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
03/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
24/07	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
17/05	Vejle Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
11/05	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	3	2	D

Midtjylland

DLWWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
07/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
02/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
30/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
26/07	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
17/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-3	5	5	L
10/05	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Odense BK vs Midtjylland?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Midtjylland win (51%). Probabilities: Odense BK 24%, draw 24%, Midtjylland 51%.

How many goals are expected in Odense BK vs Midtjylland?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Odense BK 1.31 · Midtjylland 1.95), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Odense BK vs Midtjylland?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.