Football · Denmark Superligaen · 25/10, 18:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs Viborg

Team pages: AGF Aarhus · Viborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

AGF Aarhus1.78

Viborg1.62

1X2

41% 26% 34%

AGF Aarhus Draw Viborg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF Aarhus 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDLDWD

Viborg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLDWWL

Head-to-head

AGF Aarhus 4–1–1 Viborg (6 last)

Viborg2-1AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus1-1Viborg
AGF Aarhus6-2Viborg
Viborg1-2AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus5-2Viborg
Viborg1-2AGF Aarhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1505 · Viborg 1492

	AGF Aarhus	Draw	Viborg
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF Aarhus	Viborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.43 ★
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.66
2	2.63 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +2’	2.38	3.50	2.63
02:17 +6’	2.30▼	3.50	2.75▲
16:13 +12’	2.38▲	3.60▲	2.70▼
03:23 +8’	2.38	3.60	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +24’	2.34	3.59	2.82
20:14 +19’	2.36▲	3.63▲	2.85▲
09:38 +42’	2.39▲	3.61▼	2.82▼
14:45 +41’	2.38▼	3.60▼	2.84▲
20:09 +48’	2.36▼	3.68▲	2.82▼
21:17 +54’	2.43▲	3.66▼	2.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 4–1–1 Viborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Denmark Superligaen	Viborg	2-1 HT 1-1	AGF Aarhus
27/06/26 Europe Friendlies	AGF Aarhus	1-1 HT 1-1	Viborg
17/05/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	6-2 HT 3-1	Viborg
06/04/26 Denmark Superligaen	Viborg	1-2 HT 1-2	AGF Aarhus
22/02/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	5-2 HT 1-0	Viborg
14/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	Viborg	1-2 HT 1-2	AGF Aarhus

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	11	8	1	2	25	11	25
2	Midtjylland	11	7	4	0	21	11	25
3	Viborg	11	6	2	3	18	10	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	11	5	4	2	17	13	19
5	Brondby	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
6	AC Horsens	11	3	4	4	18	19	13
7	Odense BK	11	3	4	4	10	15	13
8	Silkeborg IF	11	2	5	4	15	19	11
9	Randers FC	11	3	2	6	11	16	11
10	AGF Aarhus	11	1	6	4	15	18	9
11	Sonderjyske	11	2	2	7	16	24	8
12	Lyngby	11	1	5	5	15	24	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF Aarhus	Viborg
FC Copenhagen	1-1 D	4-0 W
Sonderjyske	3-0 W	0-0 D
AC Horsens	2-2 D	3-2 W
FC Nordsjaelland	0-2 L	4-1 W
Silkeborg IF	2-2 D	1-1 D
Midtjylland	0-2 L	1-2 L
Randers FC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Lyngby	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Viborg (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF Aarhus

DLDLLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
12/10	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	3-0	3	1	W
20/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
13/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
02/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D
14/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
01/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	2	5	D

Viborg

LDWWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
11/10	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
20/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	3-1	4-1	4	2	W
13/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
04/09	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
28/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
23/08	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
14/08	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
07/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
02/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs Viborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGF Aarhus win (41%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 41%, draw 26%, Viborg 34%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs Viborg?

The model expects 3.4 goals (AGF Aarhus 1.78 · Viborg 1.62), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs Viborg?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.