Football · Denmark Superligaen · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske

Team pages: AC Horsens · Sonderjyske

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

AC Horsens1.7

Sonderjyske1.58

1X2

39% 26% 34%

AC Horsens Draw Sonderjyske

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Horsens 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLDDD

Sonderjyske 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDWLW

Head-to-head

AC Horsens 2–4 Sonderjyske (6 last)

Sonderjyske2-5AC Horsens
AC Horsens1-4Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske5-0AC Horsens
AC Horsens1-2Sonderjyske
AC Horsens3-1Sonderjyske
AC Horsens1-2Sonderjyske

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Horsens 1525 · Sonderjyske 1467

	AC Horsens	Draw	Sonderjyske
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Horsens (rating 1525 vs 1467).
H2H favours Sonderjyske: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Horsens	Sonderjyske
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.43
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.86 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +18’	2.30	3.40	2.75
16:18 +6’	2.40▲	3.50▲	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +365’	2.41	3.53	2.84
16:54 +28’	2.44▲	3.45▼	2.86▲
14:29 +56’	2.43▼	3.48▲	2.86
17:19 +5’	2.43	3.48	2.85▼
17:55 +43’	2.43	3.47▼	2.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Horsens 2–0–4 Sonderjyske

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Denmark Superligaen	Sonderjyske	2-5 HT 1-2	AC Horsens
09/03/24 Denmark Division 1	AC Horsens	1-4 HT 1-2	Sonderjyske
12/08/23 Denmark Division 1	Sonderjyske	5-0 HT 2-0	AC Horsens
09/08/23 Denmark Cup	AC Horsens	1-2 HT 1-1	Sonderjyske
30/01/22 Europe Friendlies	AC Horsens	3-1 HT 0-0	Sonderjyske
20/05/21 Denmark Superligaen	AC Horsens	1-2 HT 1-0	Sonderjyske

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	11	8	1	2	25	11	25
2	Midtjylland	11	7	4	0	21	11	25
3	Viborg	11	6	2	3	18	10	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	11	5	4	2	17	13	19
5	Brondby	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
6	AC Horsens	11	3	4	4	18	19	13
7	Odense BK	11	3	4	4	10	15	13
8	Silkeborg IF	11	2	5	4	15	19	11
9	Randers FC	11	3	2	6	11	16	11
10	AGF Aarhus	11	1	6	4	15	18	9
11	Sonderjyske	11	2	2	7	16	24	8
12	Lyngby	11	1	5	5	15	24	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Horsens	Sonderjyske
Randers FC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Silkeborg IF	3-3 D	4-0 W
AGF Aarhus	2-2 D	0-3 L
FC Copenhagen	0-2 L	1-3 L
Viborg	2-3 L	0-0 D
Lyngby	2-1 W	1-1 D
Odense BK	2-1 W	0-1 L
Brondby	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sonderjyske (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Horsens

LLWWLWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
11/10	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-3	4	4	D
20/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
11/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
06/09	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-1	5-2	1	7	W
28/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
23/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
16/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
09/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
02/08	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	3	5	L

Sonderjyske

LDLLLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-0	9	3	W
12/10	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-3	0-3	7	1	L
20/09	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	2-1	4-2	4	3	W
13/09	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
06/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-5	1	7	L
31/08	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
23/08	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
17/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-3	2-3	1	6	L
07/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
03/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Horsens win (39%). Probabilities: AC Horsens 39%, draw 26%, Sonderjyske 34%.

How many goals are expected in AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?

The model expects 3.28 goals (AC Horsens 1.7 · Sonderjyske 1.58), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.