Football · Denmark Superligaen · 02/11, 19:00

Prediction: Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen

Team pages: Sonderjyske · FC Copenhagen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Sonderjyske1.05

FC Copenhagen2.33

1X2

15% 20% 65%

Sonderjyske Draw FC Copenhagen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sonderjyske 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDWLWL

FC Copenhagen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWLDD

Head-to-head

Sonderjyske 1–1–4 FC Copenhagen (6 last)

FC Copenhagen3-1Sonderjyske
FC Copenhagen0-2Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske1-2FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen1-1Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske1-2FC Copenhagen
Sonderjyske0-2FC Copenhagen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sonderjyske 1473 · FC Copenhagen 1570

	Sonderjyske	Draw	FC Copenhagen
Our model	15%	20%	65%
Market	15%	20%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Copenhagen (rating 1473 vs 1570).
H2H favours FC Copenhagen: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sonderjyske	FC Copenhagen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.5	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.5	3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.86 ★
2	1.36 → 1.42▲	Pinn 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +3’	7.00	4.75	1.36
01:51 +40’	6.25▼	4.50▼	1.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +29’	6.24	4.99	1.44
09:24 +1’	6.18▼	4.86▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sonderjyske 1–1–4 FC Copenhagen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Denmark Superligaen	FC Copenhagen	3-1 HT 2-1	Sonderjyske
07/12/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Copenhagen	0-2 HT 0-2	Sonderjyske
27/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	Sonderjyske	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Copenhagen
09/03/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Copenhagen	1-1 HT 1-1	Sonderjyske
30/10/24 Denmark Cup	Sonderjyske	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Copenhagen
11/08/24 Denmark Superligaen	Sonderjyske	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Copenhagen

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Midtjylland	12	8	4	0	24	13	28
2	FC Copenhagen	12	8	2	2	26	12	26
3	Viborg	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	12	5	5	2	18	14	20
5	Brondby	12	6	1	5	21	20	19
6	AC Horsens	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
7	Odense BK	12	3	5	4	11	16	14
8	AGF Aarhus	12	2	6	4	17	19	12
9	Silkeborg IF	12	2	6	4	16	20	12
10	Randers FC	12	3	2	7	12	19	11
11	Lyngby	12	1	5	6	17	27	8
12	Sonderjyske	12	2	2	8	17	29	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sonderjyske	FC Copenhagen
AC Horsens	1-5 L	2-0 W
AGF Aarhus	0-3 L	1-1 D
Randers FC	4-2 W	4-0 W
FC Nordsjaelland	0-3 L	2-0 W
Brondby	2-3 L	1-0 W
Viborg	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Copenhagen (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sonderjyske

DLLLLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-3	1-5	4	4	L
18/10	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-0	9	3	W
12/10	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-3	0-3	7	1	L
20/09	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	2-1	4-2	4	3	W
13/09	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
06/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-5	1	7	L
31/08	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
23/08	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
17/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-3	2-3	1	6	L
07/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D

FC Copenhagen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/10	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
11/10	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
20/09	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
11/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
06/09	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	2-0	5-0	2	4	W
03/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
31/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
16/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Copenhagen win (65%). Probabilities: Sonderjyske 15%, draw 20%, FC Copenhagen 65%.

How many goals are expected in Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Sonderjyske 1.05 · FC Copenhagen 2.33), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.