Football · Denmark Superligaen · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: Brondby vs AGF Aarhus

Team pages: Brondby · AGF Aarhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Brondby1.63

AGF Aarhus1.38

1X2

42% 26% 31%

Brondby Draw AGF Aarhus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Brondby 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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AGF Aarhus 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLDWDW

Head-to-head

Brondby 1–3–2 AGF Aarhus (6 last)

AGF Aarhus1-1Brondby
Brondby0-2AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus0-0Brondby
Brondby3-3AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus1-0Brondby
AGF Aarhus2-3Brondby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brondby 1530 · AGF Aarhus 1520

	Brondby	Draw	AGF Aarhus
Our model	42%	26%	31%
Market	42%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brondby	AGF Aarhus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	3.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.74
2	3.20 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.17 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +2’	2.00	3.60	3.20
02:23 +6’	1.95▼	3.60	3.30▲
13:27 +7’	2.10▲	3.60	3.00▼
19:10 +4’	2.15▲	3.50▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:42 +282’	1.99	3.86	3.45
12:30	2.15▲	3.73▼	3.14▼
15:26 +10’	2.14▼	3.74▲	3.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brondby 1–3–2 AGF Aarhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-1 HT 0-0	Brondby
10/05/26 Denmark Superligaen	Brondby	0-2 HT 0-2	AGF Aarhus
22/03/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	0-0 HT 0-0	Brondby
19/10/25 Denmark Superligaen	Brondby	3-3 HT 1-0	AGF Aarhus
21/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-0 HT 1-0	Brondby
25/05/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-3 HT 2-2	Brondby

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Midtjylland	12	8	4	0	24	13	28
2	FC Copenhagen	12	8	2	2	26	12	26
3	Viborg	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	12	5	5	2	18	14	20
5	Brondby	12	6	1	5	21	20	19
6	AC Horsens	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
7	Odense BK	12	3	5	4	11	16	14
8	AGF Aarhus	12	2	6	4	17	19	12
9	Silkeborg IF	12	2	6	4	16	20	12
10	Randers FC	12	3	2	7	12	19	11
11	Lyngby	12	1	5	6	17	27	8
12	Sonderjyske	12	2	2	8	17	29	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brondby	AGF Aarhus
Randers FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Odense BK	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Copenhagen	0-1 L	1-1 D
Midtjylland	1-4 L	0-2 L
FC Nordsjaelland	1-3 L	0-2 L
Silkeborg IF	3-1 W	2-2 D
Sonderjyske	3-2 W	3-0 W
AC Horsens	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AGF Aarhus (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brondby

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
18/10	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	1-2	9	3	L
11/10	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	3-0	5-2	8	5	W
20/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
14/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
06/09	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
30/08	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
24/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	3-1	9	6	W
17/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	3-2	10	6	W
09/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

AGF Aarhus

LDLLDLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	10	7	W
18/10	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
12/10	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	3-0	3	1	W
20/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
13/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
02/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D
14/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	10	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brondby win (42%). Probabilities: Brondby 42%, draw 26%, AGF Aarhus 31%.

How many goals are expected in Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

The model expects 3 goals (Brondby 1.63 · AGF Aarhus 1.38), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.