Football · Denmark Superligaen · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland

Team pages: FC Nordsjaelland · Midtjylland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

FC Nordsjaelland1.61

Midtjylland1.34

1X2

43% 25% 31%

FC Nordsjaelland Draw Midtjylland

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Nordsjaelland 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Midtjylland 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Nordsjaelland 2–2–2 Midtjylland (6 last)

Midtjylland2-2FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland0-0Midtjylland
Midtjylland0-1FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland2-1Midtjylland
Midtjylland5-1FC Nordsjaelland
Midtjylland6-0FC Nordsjaelland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Nordsjaelland 1556 · Midtjylland 1578

	FC Nordsjaelland	Draw	Midtjylland
Our model	43%	27%	31%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Nordsjaelland	Midtjylland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.20 ★
X	3.75 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.87
2	2.55 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.97

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +6’	2.35	3.75	2.55
13:23 +4’	2.10▼	3.80▲	2.88▲
14:40 +3’	2.15▲	3.75▼	2.80▼
08:16 +5’	2.10▼	3.80▲	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +238’	2.21	3.86	2.95
14:14 +30’	2.24▲	3.84▼	2.91▼
04:03 +16’	2.20▼	3.87▲	2.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Nordsjaelland 2–2–2 Midtjylland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	2-2 HT 0-0	FC Nordsjaelland
10/05/26 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	0-0 HT 0-0	Midtjylland
15/03/26 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Nordsjaelland
14/12/25 Denmark Cup	FC Nordsjaelland	2-1 HT 1-0	Midtjylland
04/12/25 Denmark Cup	Midtjylland	5-1 HT 3-0	FC Nordsjaelland
30/11/25 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	6-0 HT 4-0	FC Nordsjaelland

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Midtjylland	12	8	4	0	24	13	28
2	FC Copenhagen	12	8	2	2	26	12	26
3	Viborg	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	12	5	5	2	18	14	20
5	Brondby	12	6	1	5	21	20	19
6	AC Horsens	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
7	Odense BK	12	3	5	4	11	16	14
8	AGF Aarhus	12	2	6	4	17	19	12
9	Silkeborg IF	12	2	6	4	16	20	12
10	Randers FC	12	3	2	7	12	19	11
11	Lyngby	12	1	5	6	17	27	8
12	Sonderjyske	12	2	2	8	17	29	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Nordsjaelland	Midtjylland
Silkeborg IF	1-1 D	1-1 D
Lyngby	3-3 D	3-2 W
Odense BK	0-0 D	1-1 D
Viborg	1-4 L	2-1 W
AGF Aarhus	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Copenhagen	0-2 L	2-1 W
Brondby	3-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Midtjylland (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Nordsjaelland

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
18/10	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-2	3-3	7	9	D
09/10	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
20/09	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-3	1-4	5	2	L
13/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
07/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	3	1	D
03/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-2	0-2	0	5	L
30/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
23/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
16/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Midtjylland

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	2-1	3-2	5	1	W
19/10	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
19/09	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
14/09	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
07/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
02/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
30/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Nordsjaelland win (43%). Probabilities: FC Nordsjaelland 43%, draw 25%, Midtjylland 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland?

The model expects 2.95 goals (FC Nordsjaelland 1.61 · Midtjylland 1.34), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.