Football · Denmark Superligaen · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland

Team pages: Randers FC · FC Nordsjaelland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Randers FC1.08

FC Nordsjaelland1.88

1X2

21% 24% 55%

Randers FC Draw FC Nordsjaelland

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Randers FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLDDDL

Head-to-head

Randers FC 3–3 FC Nordsjaelland (6 last)

FC Nordsjaelland1-0Randers FC
FC Nordsjaelland1-0Randers FC
Randers FC3-0FC Nordsjaelland
Randers FC3-2FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland5-2Randers FC
Randers FC4-0FC Nordsjaelland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Randers FC 1431 · FC Nordsjaelland 1527

	Randers FC	Draw	FC Nordsjaelland
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	21%	24%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Nordsjaelland (rating 1431 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Randers FC	FC Nordsjaelland
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.26 ★
2	1.67 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.73

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +3’	4.20	4.00	1.67
10:19 +2’	4.33▲	4.00	1.65▼
15:10 +6’	4.50▲	4.00	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	4.59	4.37	1.65
03:00 +14’	4.59	4.29▼	1.67▲
09:01 +10’	4.43▼	4.22▼	1.70▲
21:36 +54’	4.35▼	4.20▼	1.71▲
16:32 +46’	4.42▲	4.26▲	1.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Randers FC 3–0–3 FC Nordsjaelland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	1-0 HT 0-0	Randers FC
19/10/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	1-0 HT 1-0	Randers FC
22/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	Randers FC	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Nordsjaelland
02/05/25 Denmark Superligaen	Randers FC	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Nordsjaelland
13/04/25 Denmark Superligaen	FC Nordsjaelland	5-2 HT 3-1	Randers FC
28/10/24 Denmark Superligaen	Randers FC	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Nordsjaelland

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Midtjylland	13	9	4	0	27	15	31
2	FC Copenhagen	13	9	2	2	28	12	29
3	Viborg	13	7	2	4	20	12	23
4	Brondby	13	7	1	5	23	20	22
5	FC Nordsjaelland	13	5	5	3	20	17	20
6	Odense BK	13	4	5	4	15	17	17
7	AC Horsens	13	4	4	5	23	21	16
8	Silkeborg IF	14	3	6	5	18	24	15
9	AGF Aarhus	13	2	6	5	17	21	12
10	Randers FC	13	3	2	8	13	21	11
11	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	19	29	11
12	Sonderjyske	13	2	2	9	17	31	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Randers FC	FC Nordsjaelland
Lyngby	1-2 L	3-3 D
Brondby	1-3 L	3-1 W
Viborg	0-2 L	1-4 L
Sonderjyske	2-4 L	3-0 W
Odense BK	1-2 L	0-0 D
AGF Aarhus	2-1 W	2-0 W
Midtjylland	0-1 L	2-3 L
FC Copenhagen	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Nordsjaelland (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Randers FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
23/10	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
16/10	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
11/10	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
20/09	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
13/09	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
06/09	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
30/08	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
23/08	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
16/08	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-3	0-4	6	1	L

FC Nordsjaelland

WWLDWLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-3	6	2	L
25/10	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
18/10	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-2	3-3	7	9	D
09/10	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
20/09	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-3	1-4	5	2	L
13/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
07/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	3	1	D
03/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-2	0-2	0	5	L
30/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
23/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-0	3-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Nordsjaelland win (55%). Probabilities: Randers FC 21%, draw 24%, FC Nordsjaelland 55%.

How many goals are expected in Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Randers FC 1.08 · FC Nordsjaelland 1.88), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.