Football · Denmark Superligaen · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs AC Horsens

Team pages: AGF Aarhus · AC Horsens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

AGF Aarhus2

AC Horsens1.04

1X2

59% 23% 18%

AGF Aarhus Draw AC Horsens

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF Aarhus 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDWDWL

AC Horsens 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDDDWL

Head-to-head

AGF Aarhus 4–1–1 AC Horsens (6 last)

AC Horsens2-2AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus2-0AC Horsens
AGF Aarhus2-1AC Horsens
AC Horsens0-3AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus2-0AC Horsens
AC Horsens2-1AGF Aarhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1516 · AC Horsens 1517

	AGF Aarhus	Draw	AC Horsens
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF Aarhus	AC Horsens
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	1.5 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.58
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.39 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +4’	1.57	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +5’	1.58	4.39	5.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 4–1–1 AC Horsens

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Denmark Superligaen	AC Horsens	2-2 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus
15/07/26 Club Friendly List	AGF Aarhus	2-0 HT 0-0	AC Horsens
02/07/25 Europe Friendlies	AGF Aarhus	2-1 HT 1-0	AC Horsens
30/06/24 Europe Friendlies	AC Horsens	0-3 HT 0-3	AGF Aarhus
03/03/23 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-0 HT 1-0	AC Horsens
26/08/22 Denmark Superligaen	AC Horsens	2-1 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Midtjylland	13	9	4	0	27	15	31
2	FC Copenhagen	13	9	2	2	28	12	29
3	Viborg	13	7	2	4	20	12	23
4	Brondby	13	7	1	5	23	20	22
5	FC Nordsjaelland	13	5	5	3	20	17	20
6	Odense BK	13	4	5	4	15	17	17
7	AC Horsens	13	4	4	5	23	21	16
8	AGF Aarhus	13	2	6	5	17	21	12
9	Silkeborg IF	13	2	6	5	17	24	12
10	Randers FC	13	3	2	8	13	21	11
11	Lyngby	13	2	5	6	19	28	11
12	Sonderjyske	13	2	2	9	17	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF Aarhus	AC Horsens
Viborg	2-1 W	0-1 L
FC Copenhagen	1-1 D	0-2 L
Sonderjyske	3-0 W	5-1 W
Silkeborg IF	2-2 D	3-3 D
Randers FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Odense BK	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AC Horsens (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF Aarhus

DLLDLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
25/10	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	10	7	W
18/10	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
12/10	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	3-0	3	1	W
20/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
13/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
02/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D

AC Horsens

WWLWLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
25/10	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-1	5-1	2	4	W
16/10	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
11/10	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-3	4	4	D
20/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
11/09	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
06/09	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-1	5-2	1	7	W
28/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
23/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
16/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs AC Horsens?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGF Aarhus win (59%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 59%, draw 23%, AC Horsens 18%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs AC Horsens?

The model expects 3.04 goals (AGF Aarhus 2 · AC Horsens 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs AC Horsens?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.