Football · Croatia HNL · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo

Team pages: NK Varazdin · Slaven Belupo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

NK Varazdin1.9

Slaven Belupo1.07

1X2

56% 24% 20%

NK Varazdin Draw Slaven Belupo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Varazdin 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDDWL

Slaven Belupo 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLDWL

Head-to-head

NK Varazdin 4–2 Slaven Belupo (6 last)

Slaven Belupo1-4NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin2-1Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo0-2NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin1-3Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo3-1NK Varazdin
Slaven Belupo0-1NK Varazdin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Varazdin 1562 · Slaven Belupo 1475

	NK Varazdin	Draw	Slaven Belupo
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Varazdin (rating 1562 vs 1475).
H2H favours NK Varazdin: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Varazdin	Slaven Belupo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.5	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.63
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	5.00 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.73

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +5’	1.53	3.80	5.00
13:12 +10’	1.61▲	3.70▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +12’	1.66	3.97	4.37
19:15 +16’	1.67▲	4.02▲	4.43▲
01:27 +46’	1.67	4.03▲	4.45▲
10:08 +1’	1.71▲	3.95▼	4.26▼
11:10	1.66▼	4.05▲	4.48▲
11:20 +51’	1.68▲	4.02▼	4.42▼
17:23 +56’	1.60▼	4.18▲	4.78▲
01:56 +18’	1.61▲	4.14▼	4.74▼
12:10 +11’	1.68▲	4.00▼	4.45▼
11:02 +13’	1.61▼	4.13▲	4.74▲
00:55 +18’	1.63▲	4.07▼	4.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Varazdin 4–0–2 Slaven Belupo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	1-4 HT 0-3	NK Varazdin
12/04/26 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-1 HT 1-1	Slaven Belupo
31/01/26 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	0-2 HT 0-2	NK Varazdin
25/10/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	1-3 HT 1-2	Slaven Belupo
10/08/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	3-1 HT 1-1	NK Varazdin
22/04/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Varazdin

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	10	7	1	2	19	9	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	6	1	2	23	12	19
3	NK Varazdin	10	5	3	2	14	8	18
4	NK Osijek	10	5	2	3	19	15	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
6	Istra 1961	10	3	3	4	17	16	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
8	Slaven Belupo	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
9	NK Rudes	10	2	1	7	13	27	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	1	3	6	7	15	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Varazdin	Slaven Belupo
Hajduk Split	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-0 W	2-1 W
NK Osijek	0-0 D	0-3 L
HNK Gorica	2-2 D	2-0 W
Istra 1961	0-0 D	0-3 L
NK Rudes	2-0 W	2-2 D
Dinamo Zagreb	1-3 L	1-5 L
HNK Rijeka	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Varazdin (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Varazdin

WWWLWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
11/10	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
14/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
04/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
29/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
09/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
02/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	1	4	W

Slaven Belupo

LLLWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-3	1-5	5	0	L
11/10	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	1-1	4-1	3	1	W
18/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	7	7	D
13/09	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
06/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
30/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
22/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
31/07	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Varazdin win (56%). Probabilities: NK Varazdin 56%, draw 24%, Slaven Belupo 20%.

How many goals are expected in NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

The model expects 2.98 goals (NK Varazdin 1.9 · Slaven Belupo 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.