Football · Croatia HNL · 27/10, 18:00

Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

Team pages: Dinamo Zagreb · HNK Rijeka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Dinamo Zagreb1.93

HNK Rijeka1.07

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Dinamo Zagreb Draw HNK Rijeka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Zagreb 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWLWLW

HNK Rijeka 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWLW

Head-to-head

Dinamo Zagreb 4–2–0 HNK Rijeka (6 last)

Dinamo Zagreb2-0HNK Rijeka
Dinamo Zagreb2-2HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka0-0Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb2-1HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka0-2Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb1-0HNK Rijeka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Zagreb 1594 · HNK Rijeka 1542

	Dinamo Zagreb	Draw	HNK Rijeka
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Zagreb (rating 1594 vs 1542).
H2H favours Dinamo Zagreb: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Zagreb	HNK Rijeka
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.4	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.86 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +2’	1.55	3.80	4.75
01:19 +3’	1.60▲	3.60▼	4.50▼
10:17 +4’	1.61▲	3.50▼	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +246’	1.64	4.01	4.68
01:57 +27’	1.65▲	3.96▼	4.67▼
16:26 +2’	1.66▲	3.91▼	4.67
00:17 +8’	1.67▲	3.86▼	4.66▼
00:26 +61’	1.68▲	3.84▼	4.66
11:09 +21’	1.67▼	3.89▲	4.66
23:12 +14’	1.67▲	3.86▼	4.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Zagreb 4–2–0 HNK Rijeka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Croatia Cup	Dinamo Zagreb	2-0 HT 0-0	HNK Rijeka
18/04/26 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	2-2 HT 1-0	HNK Rijeka
08/02/26 Croatia HNL	HNK Rijeka	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Zagreb
01/11/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	2-1 HT 1-0	HNK Rijeka
16/08/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Rijeka	0-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Zagreb
27/04/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	1-0 HT 1-0	HNK Rijeka

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	10	7	1	2	19	9	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	6	1	2	23	12	19
3	NK Varazdin	10	5	3	2	14	8	18
4	NK Osijek	10	5	2	3	19	15	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
6	Istra 1961	10	3	3	4	17	16	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
8	Slaven Belupo	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
9	NK Rudes	10	2	1	7	13	27	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	1	3	6	7	15	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Zagreb	HNK Rijeka
Slaven Belupo	5-1 W	1-4 L
Hajduk Split	1-2 L	3-0 W
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3-2 W	1-1 D
NK Osijek	2-4 L	4-1 W
HNK Gorica	1-0 W	0-0 D
Istra 1961	2-2 D	3-2 W
NK Varazdin	3-1 W	0-2 L
NK Rudes	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Zagreb (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Zagreb

DWWWDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-1	5-1	2	0	W
10/10	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
12/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	2-4	6	7	L
05/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
29/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
22/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
14/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	12	4	W
31/07	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
23/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	0	D

HNK Rijeka

WWLWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
11/10	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	7	1	L
20/09	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	0	6	W
12/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
05/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	3-1	4-1	8	2	W
31/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
23/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	3-2	6	1	W
16/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
23/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Zagreb win (56%). Probabilities: Dinamo Zagreb 56%, draw 25%, HNK Rijeka 19%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?

The model expects 3 goals (Dinamo Zagreb 1.93 · HNK Rijeka 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.