Football · Croatia HNL · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

Team pages: HNK Rijeka · NK Varazdin

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
HNK Rijeka1.53
NK Varazdin0.87
1X2
52% 27% 21%
HNK Rijeka Draw NK Varazdin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
HNK Rijeka 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
WLWDWDWLWL
NK Varazdin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
WWLWDDDWLL
Head-to-head
HNK Rijeka 2–4 NK Varazdin (6 last)
  • NK Varazdin2-0HNK Rijeka
  • NK Varazdin1-0HNK Rijeka
  • HNK Rijeka3-1NK Varazdin
  • NK Varazdin1-0HNK Rijeka
  • HNK Rijeka1-2NK Varazdin
  • HNK Rijeka1-0NK Varazdin
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HNK Rijeka 1545 · NK Varazdin 1529
HNK RijekaDrawNK Varazdin
Our model52%28%20%
Market53%26%21%
Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours NK Varazdin: 4-0-2.
  • High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

HNK RijekaNK Varazdin
Goals for / against (FT)1.7 / 1.41.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)1 / 0.50.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/30/20%50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)2.6 / 6.13 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3 / 0.13.9 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Rijeka 2–0–4 NK Varazdin

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DateHomeScoreAway
16/08/26
Croatia HNL
NK Varazdin2-0
HT 2-0
HNK Rijeka
22/04/26
Croatia HNL
NK Varazdin1-0
HT 0-0
HNK Rijeka
14/02/26
Croatia HNL
HNK Rijeka3-1
HT 1-0
NK Varazdin
09/11/25
Croatia HNL
NK Varazdin1-0
HT 1-0
HNK Rijeka
24/08/25
Croatia HNL
HNK Rijeka1-2
HT 1-1
NK Varazdin
13/04/25
Croatia HNL
HNK Rijeka1-0
HT 0-0
NK Varazdin

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Hajduk Split 11722 211123
2 Dinamo Zagreb 10712 251322
3 NK Varazdin 11533 151018
4 NK Osijek 11524 191617
5 HNK Rijeka 10523 171417
6 Istra 1961 11344 191813
7 Slaven Belupo 11416 142313
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 11326 131711
9 NK Rudes 11317 142710
10 HNK Gorica 11146 7157

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentHNK RijekaNK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 L 1-3 L
NK Rudes 2-1 W 2-0 W
Slaven Belupo 1-4 L 1-2 L
Hajduk Split 3-0 W 0-1 L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 D 1-0 W
NK Osijek 4-1 W 0-0 D
HNK Gorica 0-0 D 2-2 D
Istra 1961 3-2 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 4 W 2 D 2 L 2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HNK Rijeka (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HNK Rijeka

WLWDWDWLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/10 Dinamo Zagreb
Croatia HNL
0-1 1-2 12 L
16/10 NK Rudes
Croatia HNL
1-0 2-1 45 W
11/10 Slaven Belupo
Croatia HNL
1-1 1-4 71 L
20/09 Hajduk Split
Croatia HNL
2-0 3-0 06 W
12/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Croatia HNL
0-0 1-1 115 D
05/09 NK Osijek
Croatia HNL
3-1 4-1 82 W
31/08 HNK Gorica
Croatia HNL
0-0 0-0 83 D
23/08 Istra 1961
Croatia HNL
2-0 3-2 61 W
16/08 NK Varazdin
Croatia HNL
0-2 0-2 93 L
02/08 NK Rudes
Croatia HNL
1-0 2-1 73 W

NK Varazdin

WWLWDDDWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
24/10 Slaven Belupo
Croatia HNL
1-0 1-2 15 L
18/10 Hajduk Split
Croatia HNL
0-0 0-1 34 L
11/10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Croatia HNL
1-0 1-0 56 W
19/09 NK Osijek
Croatia HNL
0-0 0-0 74 D
14/09 HNK Gorica
Croatia HNL
0-0 2-2 33 D
04/09 Istra 1961
Croatia HNL
0-0 0-0 86 D
29/08 NK Rudes
Croatia HNL
0-0 2-0 93 W
22/08 Dinamo Zagreb
Croatia HNL
1-0 1-3 24 L
16/08 HNK Rijeka
Croatia HNL
2-0 2-0 23 W
09/08 Slaven Belupo
Croatia HNL
3-0 4-1 52 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HNK Rijeka win (52%). Probabilities: HNK Rijeka 52%, draw 27%, NK Varazdin 21%.

How many goals are expected in HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

The model expects 2.4 goals (HNK Rijeka 1.53 · NK Varazdin 0.87), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.