Football · Croatia HNL · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica

Team pages: Hajduk Split · HNK Gorica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Hajduk Split1.91

HNK Gorica0.56

1X2

69% 22% 9%

Hajduk Split Draw HNK Gorica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Hajduk Split 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWLWW

HNK Gorica 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDWLDD

Head-to-head

Hajduk Split 4–1–1 HNK Gorica (6 last)

HNK Gorica1-2Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split1-0HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica1-0Hajduk Split
HNK Gorica1-3Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-0HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica1-1Hajduk Split

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1600 vs 1452).
H2H favours Hajduk Split: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hajduk Split	HNK Gorica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.86

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.31 → 1.32▲	Pinn 1.32
X	4.95 → 5.03▲	Pinn 5.03
2	8.01 → 8.25▲	Pinn 8.25

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:17 +2’	1.31	4.95	8.01
19:15 +9’	1.32▲	5.03▲	8.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hajduk Split 4–1–1 HNK Gorica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-2 HT 0-1	Hajduk Split
12/04/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	1-0 HT 1-0	HNK Gorica
31/01/26 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-0 HT 1-0	Hajduk Split
24/10/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-3 HT 0-1	Hajduk Split
10/08/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-0 HT 0-0	HNK Gorica
11/05/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-1 HT 0-0	Hajduk Split

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	10	7	1	2	19	9	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	6	1	2	23	12	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	5	3	3	15	10	18
4	HNK Rijeka	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
5	NK Osijek	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
6	Slaven Belupo	11	4	1	6	14	23	13
7	Istra 1961	10	3	3	4	17	16	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	3	2	6	13	17	11
9	NK Rudes	11	3	1	7	14	27	10
10	HNK Gorica	11	1	4	6	7	15	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hajduk Split	HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin	1-0 W	2-2 D
Dinamo Zagreb	2-1 W	0-1 L
HNK Rijeka	0-3 L	0-0 D
Slaven Belupo	1-0 W	0-2 L
NK Rudes	4-0 W	1-2 L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-0 W	0-0 D
NK Osijek	4-0 W	1-1 D
Istra 1961	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hajduk Split (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hajduk Split

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/10	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	7	0	W
31/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
23/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	4-0	0	5	W
16/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
02/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	6	4	L

HNK Gorica

LLLDLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
17/10	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
09/10	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
19/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	1	3	D
05/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
31/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
08/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-2	1-3	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hajduk Split win (69%). Probabilities: Hajduk Split 69%, draw 22%, HNK Gorica 9%.

How many goals are expected in Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Hajduk Split 1.91 · HNK Gorica 0.56), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.