Football · Croatia HNL · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek

Team pages: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · NK Osijek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.3

NK Osijek1.33

1X2

35% 28% 37%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Draw NK Osijek

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLLWD

NK Osijek 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDLDL

Head-to-head

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–4–1 NK Osijek (6 last)

NK Osijek1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Osijek0-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-1NK Osijek
NK Osijek1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1NK Osijek
NK Osijek1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1490 · NK Osijek 1469

	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Draw	NK Osijek
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Osijek
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.7	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.73 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.31
2	2.40 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.52

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:20 +3’	2.60	3.20	2.40
20:18 +11’	2.55▼	3.20	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +281’	2.76	3.30	2.50
12:15 +15’	2.76	3.31▲	2.49▼
13:11 +23’	2.73▼	3.31	2.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–4–1 NK Osijek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
25/04/26 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
21/02/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3-1 HT 0-1	NK Osijek
23/11/25 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
31/08/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Osijek
09/05/25 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	11	7	2	2	21	11	23
2	Dinamo Zagreb	10	7	1	2	25	13	22
3	NK Varazdin	11	5	3	3	15	10	18
4	NK Osijek	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
5	HNK Rijeka	10	5	2	3	17	14	17
6	Istra 1961	11	3	4	4	19	18	13
7	Slaven Belupo	11	4	1	6	14	23	13
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	3	2	6	13	17	11
9	NK Rudes	11	3	1	7	14	27	10
10	HNK Gorica	11	1	4	6	7	15	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Osijek
HNK Gorica	0-0 D	1-1 D
Istra 1961	2-0 W	1-3 L
NK Varazdin	0-1 L	0-0 D
Dinamo Zagreb	2-3 L	4-2 W
HNK Rijeka	1-1 D	1-4 L
Slaven Belupo	1-2 L	3-0 W
Hajduk Split	0-2 L	0-4 L
NK Rudes	1-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Osijek (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

WLLLLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
17/10	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/10	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
20/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
12/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
21/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
15/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	3-1	9	8	W

NK Osijek

WWLWLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
17/10	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
10/10	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-1	1-3	10	5	L
19/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-0	4-2	2	7	W
05/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
30/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
23/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
15/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
08/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	4-0	6-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Osijek win (37%). Probabilities: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 35%, draw 28%, NK Osijek 37%.

How many goals are expected in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek?

The model expects 2.64 goals (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.3 · NK Osijek 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.