Football · Croatia HNL · 06/09, 21:00

Prediction: Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Team pages: Slaven Belupo · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Slaven Belupo1.5

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.31

1X2

41% 28% 32%

Slaven Belupo Draw NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Slaven Belupo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLWL

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Slaven Belupo 1–2–3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (6 last)

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2-1Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Belupo2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Belupo2-4NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo1-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Slaven Belupo 1414 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1518

	Slaven Belupo	Draw	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (rating 1414 vs 1518).
H2H favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Slaven Belupo	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.33
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.82

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:42 +14’	2.20	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +1’	2.31	3.51	2.79
20:57 +1’	2.33▲	3.55▲	2.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Slaven Belupo 1–2–3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-1 HT 1-1	Slaven Belupo
10/03/26 Croatia Cup	Slaven Belupo	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
13/02/26 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
16/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Slaven Belupo	2-4 HT 2-3	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
08/11/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 HT 0-1	Slaven Belupo
23/08/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Osijek	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
2	NK Varazdin	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
3	Dinamo Zagreb	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
4	Hajduk Split	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
5	HNK Rijeka	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
6	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	5	2	0	3	7	10	6
7	Istra 1961	5	1	2	2	11	10	5
8	NK Rudes	5	1	0	4	6	15	3
9	Slaven Belupo	5	1	0	4	3	12	3
10	HNK Gorica	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Slaven Belupo	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Osijek	0-3 L	0-1 L
HNK Gorica	2-0 W	3-1 W
Istra 1961	0-3 L	3-2 W
NK Varazdin	1-4 L	1-1 D
Dinamo Zagreb	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Slaven Belupo

DLWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
22/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
31/07	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
22/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
17/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-4	5	1	L
10/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
04/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-2	1-3	12	0	L
25/04	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	1	8	D

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

DLDDDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
21/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
15/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	3-1	9	8	W
01/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
16/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
09/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
25/04	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Slaven Belupo win (41%). Probabilities: Slaven Belupo 41%, draw 28%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%.

How many goals are expected in Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Slaven Belupo 1.5 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.31), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.