Football · Croatia HNL · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Team pages: HNK Gorica · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

HNK Gorica1.41

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.24

1X2

40% 28% 32%

HNK Gorica Draw NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

HNK Gorica 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDWLD

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

HNK Gorica 2–4 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (6 last)

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-1HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica0-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-0HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-3HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica0-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HNK Gorica 1442 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1507

	HNK Gorica	Draw	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (rating 1442 vs 1507).
H2H favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HNK Gorica	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.5	1.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.96

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +13’	2.50	3.20	2.50
01:05 +5’	2.25▼	3.20	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +311’	2.38	3.28	2.93
20:08 +21’	2.42▲	3.18▼	2.97▲
21:02 +14’	2.41▼	3.19▲	2.96▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Gorica 2–0–4 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3-1 HT 2-0	HNK Gorica
17/04/26 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
06/02/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3-0 HT 2-0	HNK Gorica
03/11/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	4-1 HT 3-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
16/08/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-3 HT 1-0	HNK Gorica
24/05/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	0-3 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	10	7	1	2	19	9	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	6	1	2	23	12	19
3	NK Varazdin	10	5	3	2	14	8	18
4	NK Osijek	10	5	2	3	19	15	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
6	Istra 1961	10	3	3	4	17	16	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
8	Slaven Belupo	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
9	NK Rudes	10	2	1	7	13	27	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	1	3	6	7	15	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HNK Gorica	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Osijek	1-1 D	0-1 L
NK Rudes	1-2 L	1-4 L
Istra 1961	1-0 W	2-0 W
NK Varazdin	2-2 D	0-1 L
Dinamo Zagreb	0-1 L	2-3 L
HNK Rijeka	0-0 D	1-1 D
Slaven Belupo	0-2 L	1-2 L
Hajduk Split	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: HNK Gorica (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HNK Gorica

LLLLDLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
09/10	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
19/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	1	3	D
05/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
31/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
08/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-2	1-3	3	8	L
01/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	3	L

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

WWLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/10	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
20/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
12/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
21/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
15/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	3-1	9	8	W
01/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-1	3-2	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HNK Gorica win (40%). Probabilities: HNK Gorica 40%, draw 28%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%.

How many goals are expected in HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

The model expects 2.65 goals (HNK Gorica 1.41 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.