Football · Croatia HNL · 26/10, 18:00

Prediction: Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split

Team pages: Istra 1961 · Hajduk Split

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Istra 19611.16

Hajduk Split1.85

1X2

22% 25% 52%

Istra 1961 Draw Hajduk Split

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Istra 1961 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDWLWL

Hajduk Split 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Istra 1961 2–1–3 Hajduk Split (6 last)

Hajduk Split2-2Istra 1961
Istra 19611-3Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split1-2Istra 1961
Istra 19610-3Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-1Istra 1961
Hajduk Split0-1Istra 1961

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Istra 1961 1508 · Hajduk Split 1604

	Istra 1961	Draw	Hajduk Split
Our model	23%	25%	53%
Market	22%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1508 vs 1604).
H2H favours Hajduk Split: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Istra 1961	Hajduk Split
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.08
X	3.70 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.81 ★
2	1.60 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.77

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +4’	4.50	3.70	1.60
16:26 +8’	4.33▼	3.60▼	1.65▲
19:32 +8’	4.00▼	3.50▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +246’	4.08	3.81	1.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Istra 1961 2–1–3 Hajduk Split

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-2 HT 1-1	Istra 1961
07/04/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	1-3 HT 0-1	Hajduk Split
25/01/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	1-2 HT 0-2	Istra 1961
19/10/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	0-3 HT 0-2	Hajduk Split
03/08/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-1 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
23/04/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	0-1 HT 0-1	Istra 1961

Standings · Croatia HNL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	10	7	1	2	19	9	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	6	1	2	23	12	19
3	NK Varazdin	10	5	3	2	14	8	18
4	NK Osijek	10	5	2	3	19	15	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
6	Istra 1961	10	3	3	4	17	16	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
8	Slaven Belupo	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
9	NK Rudes	10	2	1	7	13	27	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	1	3	6	7	15	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Istra 1961	Hajduk Split
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	0-2 L	2-0 W
NK Osijek	3-1 W	4-0 W
HNK Gorica	0-1 L	2-1 W
NK Rudes	3-2 W	4-0 W
NK Varazdin	0-0 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Zagreb	2-2 D	2-1 W
HNK Rijeka	2-3 L	0-3 L
Slaven Belupo	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hajduk Split (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Istra 1961

LDWLDDWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	10	1	L
10/10	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
19/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
13/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
04/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
29/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
15/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
01/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L

Hajduk Split

LDWWWWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/10	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	7	0	W
31/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
23/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	4-0	0	5	W
16/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
02/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hajduk Split win (52%). Probabilities: Istra 1961 22%, draw 25%, Hajduk Split 52%.

How many goals are expected in Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Istra 1961 1.16 · Hajduk Split 1.85), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.