Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 20/09, 13:15
Prediction: Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole
Team pages: Hegelmann Litauen · Suduva Marijampole
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Hegelmann Litauen1.01
Suduva Marijampole1.78
1X2
Hegelmann Litauen
Draw
Suduva Marijampole
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Hegelmann Litauen
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Suduva Marijampole
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hegelmann Litauen
1–2–3
Suduva Marijampole
(6 last)
- Suduva Marijampole5-1Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen2-2Suduva Marijampole
- Suduva Marijampole0-0Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen2-1Suduva Marijampole
- Suduva Marijampole2-1Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen0-2Suduva Marijampole
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hegelmann Litauen 1437 · Suduva Marijampole 1568
| Hegelmann Litauen | Draw | Suduva Marijampole | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1437 vs 1568).
- H2H favours Suduva Marijampole: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hegelmann Litauen | Suduva Marijampole | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.2 | 2.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hegelmann Litauen 1–2–3 Suduva Marijampole
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 16/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 14/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 08/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 30/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 30/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Suduva Marijampole |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suduva Marijampole | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 49 |
| 2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 54 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 31 | 44 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 42 |
| 5 | Banga Gargzdai | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 41 |
| 6 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 40 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 28 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 30 | 47 | 25 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 56 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hegelmann Litauen | Suduva Marijampole |
|---|---|---|
| FK Siauliai | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Panevezys | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Banga Gargzdai | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| FK Transinvest | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 4 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hegelmann Litauen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 07/09 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 31/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 27/07 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 20/07 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Suduva Marijampole
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/09 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Suduva Marijampole win (55%). Probabilities: Hegelmann Litauen 20%, draw 25%, Suduva Marijampole 55%.
How many goals are expected in Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Hegelmann Litauen 1.01 · Suduva Marijampole 1.78), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.