Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai vs FK Kauno Zalgiris

Team pages: FK Siauliai · FK Kauno Zalgiris

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

FK Siauliai0.78

FK Kauno Zalgiris2.23

1X2

11% 18% 70%

FK Siauliai Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLD

FK Kauno Zalgiris 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWWWL

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai 0–2–4 FK Kauno Zalgiris (6 last)

FK Siauliai0-1FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris0-0FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai0-5FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris3-1FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai2-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris3-0FK Siauliai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai 1374 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1580

	FK Siauliai	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris
Our model	11%	20%	70%
Market	12%	17%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris (rating 1374 vs 1580).
H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai	FK Kauno Zalgiris
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.1	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.25

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.80

2 (-1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 7.50▲	Pinn 8.54 ★
X	4.75 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.46
2	1.33 → 1.27▼	Pinn 1.28

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +7’	6.50	4.75	1.33
07:09 +12’	7.50▲	5.25▲	1.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +199’	7.59	5.10	1.33
07:05 +16’	8.54▲	5.46▲	1.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai 0–2–4 FK Kauno Zalgiris

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Lithuania Cup	FK Siauliai	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris
16/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai
15/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	0-5 HT 0-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris
17/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
20/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	2-2 HT 1-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris
23/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	27	13	10	4	38	24	49
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	27	13	9	5	54	20	48
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	27	13	5	9	41	31	44
4	FK Transinvest	27	12	6	9	40	35	42
5	Banga Gargzdai	28	11	8	9	32	28	41
6	FK Dziugas Telsiai	28	10	8	10	36	40	38
7	Panevezys	28	9	5	14	29	43	32
8	Hegelmann Litauen	28	4	13	11	30	47	25
9	FK Siauliai	28	3	8	17	24	56	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai	FK Kauno Zalgiris
Hegelmann Litauen	0-0 D	2-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	0-1 L	2-3 L
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	5-1 W
FK Transinvest	0-3 L	1-1 D
Panevezys	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	3-4 L	5-0 W
Banga Gargzdai	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai

LLLLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
06/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
30/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
24/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
17/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-3	3-4	7	6	L
03/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	9	8	L
24/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
05/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-3	8	0	L
29/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	8	2	L

FK Kauno Zalgiris

WDWWDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	2-2	2-3	7	4	L
13/09	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
09/09	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	5-1	6	1	W
06/09	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
30/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
08/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
11/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
03/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
20/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-1	12	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Kauno Zalgiris win (70%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai 11%, draw 18%, FK Kauno Zalgiris 70%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?

The model expects 3 goals (FK Siauliai 0.78 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 2.23), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.