Prediction: Safa Beirut vs Al-Mabarrah
Expected goals: 2.66 (Safa Beirut 2.05 · Al-Mabarrah 0.61). The model gives 71% home, 19% draw, 10% away. Under 2.75 goals (52%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 2-0.
On recent form, Safa Beirut is 6-1-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Al-Mabarrah 3-3-4 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Safa Beirut won 0 and Al-Mabarrah 1.
| Safa Beirut | Draw | Al-Mabarrah | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Safa Beirut (rating 1542 vs 1476).
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Safa Beirut | Al-Mabarrah | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 13/50/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.5 | 0.3 / 1.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Safa Beirut 0–0–1 Al-Mabarrah
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/12/25 Lebanon League | Al-Mabarrah | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Safa Beirut |
Standings · Lebanon League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar Beirut | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 10 | 43 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 22 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaya FC | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 14 | 37 |
| 5 | Safa Beirut | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 17 | 33 |
| 6 | Sagesse SC | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 26 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al-Sahel | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
| 8 | Al-Mabarrah | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 22 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 17 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Al Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing Beirut | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Safa Beirut | Al-Mabarrah |
|---|---|---|
| Jwaya FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Al Ahed | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Reyady Abaseya | 4-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Shabab Al-Sahel | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Al Ansar Beirut | 0-1 L | 0-7 L |
| Racing Beirut | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Sagesse SC | 2-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Al Nejmeh | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Safa Beirut (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Safa Beirut
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Al Ahed World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Al Ansar Beirut World Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/02 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/02 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/02 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/01 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Al-Mabarrah
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-4 | 0-7 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/06 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
– | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 11/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 15/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/01 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/01 | Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Safa Beirut vs Al-Mabarrah?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Safa Beirut win (71%). Probabilities: Safa Beirut 71%, draw 19%, Al-Mabarrah 10%.
How many goals are expected in Safa Beirut vs Al-Mabarrah?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Safa Beirut 2.05 · Al-Mabarrah 0.61), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Safa Beirut vs Al-Mabarrah?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.