Prediction: Sagesse SC vs Al Nejmeh
Expected goals: 2.77 (Sagesse SC 0.94 · Al Nejmeh 1.83). The model gives 18% home, 25% draw, 57% away. Over 2.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Sagesse SC sits at 5-2-3 (W-D-L), while Al Nejmeh arrives on a 5-3-2 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sagesse SC won 0 and Al Nejmeh 5, with 1 draw.
| Sagesse SC | Draw | Al Nejmeh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| Market | 18% | 25% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Nejmeh (rating 1512 vs 1561).
- H2H favours Al Nejmeh: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagesse SC | Al Nejmeh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 2.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 38/50/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 2.1 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagesse SC 0–1–5 Al Nejmeh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/25 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Sagesse SC |
| 12/07/25 Lebanon League | Sagesse SC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Al Nejmeh |
| 14/06/25 Lebanon League | Sagesse SC | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Al Nejmeh |
| 02/05/25 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sagesse SC |
| 01/02/25 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sagesse SC |
| 11/11/23 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sagesse SC |
Standings · Lebanon League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar Beirut | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 10 | 43 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 22 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaya FC | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 14 | 37 |
| 5 | Safa Beirut | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 17 | 33 |
| 6 | Sagesse SC | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 26 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al-Sahel | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
| 8 | Al-Mabarrah | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 22 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 17 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Al Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing Beirut | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sagesse SC | Al Nejmeh |
|---|---|---|
| Tadamon Sour | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Al-Mabarrah | 4-2 W | 5-0 W |
| Jwaya FC | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Al Ahed | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Reyady Abaseya | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Shabab Al-Sahel | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Safa Beirut | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Al Ansar Beirut | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Racing Beirut | 2-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 3 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Al Nejmeh (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sagesse SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
0-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
4-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/02 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/02 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 30/01 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/01 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Al Nejmeh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 16/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Al Ansar Beirut World Club Friendlies |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 21/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 07/02 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/01 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sagesse SC vs Al Nejmeh?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Nejmeh win (57%). Probabilities: Sagesse SC 18%, draw 25%, Al Nejmeh 57%.
How many goals are expected in Sagesse SC vs Al Nejmeh?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Sagesse SC 0.94 · Al Nejmeh 1.83), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sagesse SC vs Al Nejmeh?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.