Prediction: Supra du Quebec vs Atletico Ottawa
Expected goals: 3.39 (Supra du Quebec 1.67 · Atletico Ottawa 1.72). The model gives 36% home, 25% draw, 39% away. Over 2.75 goals (56%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Supra du Quebec sits at 3-2-5 (W-D-L), while Atletico Ottawa arrives on a 5-2-3 run. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Supra du Quebec and 2 for Atletico Ottawa.
| Supra du Quebec | Draw | Atletico Ottawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 25% | 39% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1471 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Supra du Quebec | Atletico Ottawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.9 | 2.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Supra du Quebec 0–0–2 Atletico Ottawa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/26 Canada Premier League | Atletico Ottawa | 5-3 HT 1-3 | Supra du Quebec |
| 19/04/26 Canada Premier League | Supra du Quebec | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Supra du Quebec | Atletico Ottawa |
|---|---|---|
| Forge FC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Inter Toronto | 3-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Vancouver FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Cavalry FC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| HFX Wanderers | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Supra du Quebec (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Supra du Quebec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 10/06 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
3-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 07/06 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Woodbridge Strikers Canada Championships |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
Atletico Ottawa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/07 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
1-3 | 5-3 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Toronto FC Canada Championships |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Supra du Quebec vs Atletico Ottawa?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Ottawa win (39%). Probabilities: Supra du Quebec 36%, draw 25%, Atletico Ottawa 39%.
How many goals are expected in Supra du Quebec vs Atletico Ottawa?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Supra du Quebec 1.67 · Atletico Ottawa 1.72), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Atletico Ottawa?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.