Prediction: Union San Felipe vs Union La Calera
Expected goals: 2.68 (Union San Felipe 1.28 · Union La Calera 1.4). The model gives 33% home, 28% draw, 39% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Union San Felipe sits at 4-1-5 (W-D-L), while Union La Calera arrives on a 4-3-3 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Union San Felipe and 1 for Union La Calera, with 1 draw.
| Union San Felipe | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Union San Felipe: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union San Felipe | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union San Felipe 4–1–1 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Chile Cup | Union La Calera | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Union San Felipe |
| 27/08/17 Chile Primera B | Union San Felipe | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Union La Calera |
| 11/04/17 Chile Primera B | Union La Calera | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Union San Felipe |
| 17/10/16 Chile Primera B | Union San Felipe | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Union La Calera |
| 29/05/14 Chile Cup | Union La Calera | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Union San Felipe |
| 25/05/14 Chile Cup | Union San Felipe | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Union La Calera |
Standings · Chile Cup · Copa Chile 2026, Group D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad de Chile | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Union La Calera | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Union San Felipe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Santiago Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union San Felipe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Union La Calera Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union San Felipe vs Union La Calera?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Union La Calera win (39%). Probabilities: Union San Felipe 33%, draw 28%, Union La Calera 39%.
How many goals are expected in Union San Felipe vs Union La Calera?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Union San Felipe 1.28 · Union La Calera 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union San Felipe vs Union La Calera?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.