Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/11, 20:00

Prediction: Avai vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: Avai · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Avai1.02

Sao Bernardo SP1.13

1X2

31% 32% 37%

Avai Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Avai 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWWDLL

Sao Bernardo SP 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLDLW

Head-to-head

Avai 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP (1 last)

Sao Bernardo SP1-1Avai

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Bernardo SP (rating 1452 vs 1524).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avai	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.2	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.87

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:17

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.81 → 1.95▲	Pinn 1.95
X	3.44 → 3.35▼	Pinn 3.35
2	4.45 → 4.11▼	Pinn 4.11

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:42 +36’	1.81	3.44	4.45
23:52 +25’	1.95▲	3.35▼	4.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avai 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 HT 1-0	Avai

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	36	18	11	7	47	25	65
2	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
3	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52	38	63
4	Criciuma	36	18	8	10	38	30	62
5	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48	39	55
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	36	13	9	14	41	39	48
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Nautico	36	12	10	14	40	46	46
15	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	36	10	7	19	33	46	37
18	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45	54	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avai	Sao Bernardo SP
Londrina	2-1 W	1-2 L
Criciuma	0-3 L	0-1 L
Vila Nova	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avai

LDLLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	8	L
24/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
18/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
11/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
03/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
27/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
20/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Sao Bernardo SP

WLWWDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
18/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
11/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
07/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	7	L
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avai vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Bernardo SP win (37%). Probabilities: Avai 31%, draw 32%, Sao Bernardo SP 37%.

How many goals are expected in Avai vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Avai 1.02 · Sao Bernardo SP 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avai vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.