Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/11, 20:10

Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs Fortaleza

Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · Fortaleza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Gremio Novorizontino1.58

Fortaleza0.85

1X2

54% 27% 19%

Gremio Novorizontino Draw Fortaleza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio Novorizontino 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWWDWW

Fortaleza 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDWDWD

Head-to-head

Gremio Novorizontino 0–1 Fortaleza (1 last)

Fortaleza1-0Gremio Novorizontino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio Novorizontino 1561 · Fortaleza 1567

	Gremio Novorizontino	Draw	Fortaleza
Our model	53%	28%	19%
Market	54%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio Novorizontino	Fortaleza
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.76 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +54’	1.73	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +22’	1.75	3.52	4.71
21:12 +19’	1.76▲	3.56▲	4.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 0–0–1 Fortaleza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	1-0 HT 1-0	Gremio Novorizontino

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64	31	67
2	EC Juventude	36	18	11	7	47	25	65
3	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52	38	63
4	Criciuma	36	18	8	10	38	30	62
5	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48	39	55
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Sao Bernardo SP	36	14	10	12	51	40	52
11	Operario PR	36	14	9	13	46	48	51
12	Botafogo SP	36	13	9	14	41	39	48
13	Cuiaba	36	11	14	11	33	30	47
14	Nautico	36	12	10	14	40	46	46
15	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	36	10	7	19	33	46	37
18	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45	54	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio Novorizontino	Fortaleza
Ponte Preta	5-1 W	2-2 D
Nautico	2-0 W	1-1 D
Goias	3-0 W	1-0 W
Ceara	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio Novorizontino

WDLDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	8	9	W
24/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
13/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-1	5-1	5	8	W
09/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	9	8	L
13/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W

Fortaleza

WWDWDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
17/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
08/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
27/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
20/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs Fortaleza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (54%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 54%, draw 27%, Fortaleza 19%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs Fortaleza?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 1.58 · Fortaleza 0.85), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs Fortaleza?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.