Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 08/08, 12:30
Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic
Team pages: University Azzurri FC · Darwin Olympic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.38Total
University Azzurri FC2.83
Darwin Olympic1.55
1X2
University Azzurri FC
Draw
Darwin Olympic
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
University Azzurri FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Darwin Olympic
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
University Azzurri FC
3–3
Darwin Olympic
(6 last)
- Darwin Olympic0-3University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC1-2Darwin Olympic
- Darwin Olympic0-3University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC1-0Darwin Olympic
- Darwin Olympic2-0University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC1-3Darwin Olympic
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1597 · Darwin Olympic 1492
| University Azzurri FC | Draw | Darwin Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| Market | 64% | 17% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1597 vs 1492).
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University Azzurri FC | Darwin Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.1 / 0.9 | 3.1 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 3–0–3 Darwin Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 0-3 HT 0-2 | University Azzurri FC |
| 28/03/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Darwin Olympic |
| 27/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 0-3 HT 0-2 | University Azzurri FC |
| 05/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Darwin Olympic |
| 27/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 2-0 HT 1-0 | University Azzurri FC |
| 24/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Darwin Olympic |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 71 | 17 | 49 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 65 | 15 | 37 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 57 | 40 | 31 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 35 | 30 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 36 | 28 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 44 | 18 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 67 | 16 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 53 | 15 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 18 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 88 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University Azzurri FC | Darwin Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Hellenic AC | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Casuarina FC | 5-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Garuda FC | 10-0 W | 9-1 W |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 6-1 W | 7-1 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 22/07 | Macarthur FC Australia Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Darwin Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-1 | 7-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 02/07 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
5-1 | 9-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a University Azzurri FC win (64%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 64%, draw 18%, Darwin Olympic 19%.
How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic?
The model expects 4.38 goals (University Azzurri FC 2.83 · Darwin Olympic 1.55), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Darwin Olympic?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.