Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 09/08, 10:30

Prediction: Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Hearts

Team pages: Palmerston Rovers FC · Darwin Hearts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.69Total

Palmerston Rovers FC1.62

Darwin Hearts3.07

1X2

17% 17% 66%

Palmerston Rovers FC Draw Darwin Hearts

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Palmerston Rovers FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWDLLW

Darwin Hearts 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Palmerston Rovers FC 1–1 Darwin Hearts (2 last)

Darwin Hearts3-4Palmerston Rovers FC
Palmerston Rovers FC2-5Darwin Hearts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmerston Rovers FC 1458 · Darwin Hearts 1557

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Draw	Darwin Hearts
Our model	17%	17%	66%
Market	17%	17%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 4.69 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Hearts (rating 1458 vs 1557).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Darwin Hearts
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.25

X5.25

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.82

2 (-1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.90

Under 4.751.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 5.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 5.25▼	Pinn 6.16
X	6.00 → 5.25▼	Pinn 6.82 ★
2	1.25 → 1.36▲	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +21’	7.00	6.00	1.25
11:14 +3’	6.50▼	5.75▼	1.28▲
15:24 +3’	5.25▼	5.25▼	1.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:49 +1’	5.96	6.51	1.22
06:51	6.06▲	6.63▲	1.23▲
07:51 +1’	6.04▼	6.61▼	1.23
08:55 +1’	6.29▲	6.90▲	1.23▲
09:58	6.16▼	6.82▼	1.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmerston Rovers FC 1–0–1 Darwin Hearts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	3-4 HT 1-4	Palmerston Rovers FC
27/03/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Palmerston Rovers FC	2-5 HT 1-2	Darwin Hearts

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	18	16	1	1	71	17	49
2	Mindil Aces	17	12	1	4	65	15	37
3	Port Darwin FC	16	10	1	5	57	40	31
4	Darwin Hearts	17	9	3	5	41	35	30
5	Darwin Olympic	18	8	4	6	54	36	28
6	Casuarina FC	18	5	3	10	32	44	18
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	17	5	1	11	32	67	16
8	Hellenic AC	19	4	3	12	26	53	15
9	Garuda FC	18	0	3	15	17	88	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmerston Rovers FC	Darwin Hearts
Garuda FC	7-0 W	3-2 W
Hellenic AC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Darwin Olympic	1-7 L	3-2 W
Casuarina FC	3-2 W	2-0 W
Mindil Aces	1-6 L	0-4 L
Port Darwin FC	0-10 L	4-4 D
University Azzurri FC	1-6 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Hearts (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmerston Rovers FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	7-0	2	0	W
23/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-6	1-7	1	5	L
02/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
27/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
24/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	1-6	8	1	L
20/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-6	0-10	2	2	L
06/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-6	4	2	L
31/05	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	4-1	4-3	5	1	W
17/05	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-1	6	3	W

Darwin Hearts

WLLLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
25/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
21/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
06/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
31/05	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-4	3-4	5	1	L
23/05	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-4	6	4	L
12/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Hearts?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Darwin Hearts win (66%). Probabilities: Palmerston Rovers FC 17%, draw 17%, Darwin Hearts 66%.

How many goals are expected in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Hearts?

The model expects 4.69 goals (Palmerston Rovers FC 1.62 · Darwin Hearts 3.07), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Hearts?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.