Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 14/08, 13:00

Prediction: Darwin Hearts vs Mindil Aces

Team pages: Darwin Hearts · Mindil Aces

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.46Total

Darwin Hearts1.63

Mindil Aces2.83

1X2

20% 18% 62%

Darwin Hearts Draw Mindil Aces

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Hearts 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWWDW

Mindil Aces 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Darwin Hearts 3–3 Mindil Aces (6 last)

Mindil Aces4-0Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-0Mindil Aces
Darwin Hearts4-3Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces2-1Darwin Hearts
Mindil Aces3-1Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts3-2Mindil Aces

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Hearts 1557 · Mindil Aces 1614

	Darwin Hearts	Draw	Mindil Aces
Our model	20%	18%	62%
Market	20%	18%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1557 vs 1614).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Hearts	Mindil Aces
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 2.5	4.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	1.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X5.00

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 5.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +4’	4.50	5.00	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 3–0–3 Mindil Aces

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	4-0 HT 3-0	Darwin Hearts
12/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-0 HT 0-0	Mindil Aces
24/03/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Darwin Hearts	4-3 HT 3-1	Mindil Aces
06/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	2-1 HT 2-1	Darwin Hearts
12/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	3-1 HT 1-1	Darwin Hearts
28/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	3-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	18	16	1	1	71	17	49
2	Mindil Aces	17	12	1	4	65	15	37
3	Port Darwin FC	17	11	1	5	61	41	34
4	Darwin Hearts	18	10	3	5	49	38	33
5	Darwin Olympic	18	8	4	6	54	36	28
6	Casuarina FC	18	5	3	10	32	44	18
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	18	5	1	12	35	75	16
8	Hellenic AC	19	4	3	12	26	53	15
9	Garuda FC	19	0	3	16	18	92	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Hearts	Mindil Aces
Palmerston Rovers FC	8-3 W	6-1 W
Port Darwin FC	4-4 D	8-0 W
Garuda FC	3-2 W	11-0 W
Hellenic AC	2-1 W	4-1 W
Casuarina FC	2-0 W	3-0 W
University Azzurri FC	1-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Hearts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	8-3	8	3	W
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
25/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
21/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
06/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
31/05	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-4	3-4	5	1	L
23/05	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-4	6	4	L

Mindil Aces

WWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	11-0	10	0	W
26/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
19/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
03/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-1	7	0	W
24/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	6-1	3	1	W
19/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	8-0	5	3	W
06/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/05	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Hearts vs Mindil Aces?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mindil Aces win (62%). Probabilities: Darwin Hearts 20%, draw 18%, Mindil Aces 62%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Hearts vs Mindil Aces?

The model expects 4.46 goals (Darwin Hearts 1.63 · Mindil Aces 2.83), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Hearts vs Mindil Aces?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.