Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 15/08, 10:30

Prediction: Darwin Olympic vs Hellenic AC

Team pages: Darwin Olympic · Hellenic AC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

Darwin Olympic2.8

Hellenic AC1.28

1X2

69% 17% 15%

Darwin Olympic Draw Hellenic AC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Olympic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWWDL

Hellenic AC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Darwin Olympic 3–1–2 Hellenic AC (6 last)

Hellenic AC2-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic1-2Hellenic AC
Hellenic AC1-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic2-1Hellenic AC
Hellenic AC0-2Darwin Olympic
Hellenic AC6-1Darwin Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Olympic 1495 · Hellenic AC 1454

	Darwin Olympic	Draw	Hellenic AC
Our model	68%	17%	14%
Market	69%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Olympic (rating 1495 vs 1454).
H2H favours Darwin Olympic: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Olympic	Hellenic AC
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 2.2	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1.1	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	1.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:23 +2’	1.30	5.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Olympic 3–1–2 Hellenic AC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	2-2 HT 0-0	Darwin Olympic
14/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	1-2 HT 1-0	Hellenic AC
15/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	1-2 HT 0-1	Darwin Olympic
03/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-1 HT 2-0	Hellenic AC
04/04/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	0-2 HT 0-0	Darwin Olympic
21/09/24 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	6-1 HT 3-0	Darwin Olympic

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	18	16	1	1	71	17	49
2	Mindil Aces	17	12	1	4	65	15	37
3	Port Darwin FC	17	11	1	5	61	41	34
4	Darwin Hearts	18	10	3	5	49	38	33
5	Darwin Olympic	18	8	4	6	54	36	28
6	Casuarina FC	18	5	3	10	32	44	18
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	18	5	1	12	35	75	16
8	Hellenic AC	19	4	3	12	26	53	15
9	Garuda FC	19	0	3	16	18	92	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Olympic	Hellenic AC
University Azzurri FC	2-4 L	0-3 L
Casuarina FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	7-1 W	2-1 W
Darwin Hearts	2-3 L	1-2 L
Garuda FC	9-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Olympic (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Olympic

WLDWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
25/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-1	7-1	11	5	W
02/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
28/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
12/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	9-1	4	1	W
02/06	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
30/05	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	4-2	4	5	W

Hellenic AC

LDLWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
01/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
26/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-4	0	0	L
23/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
03/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	0	L
20/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
14/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-5	0	4	L
02/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-2	5	1	D
29/05	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	1-5	8	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Olympic vs Hellenic AC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darwin Olympic win (69%). Probabilities: Darwin Olympic 69%, draw 17%, Hellenic AC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Olympic vs Hellenic AC?

The model expects 4.09 goals (Darwin Olympic 2.8 · Hellenic AC 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Olympic vs Hellenic AC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.