Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 15/08, 12:30

Prediction: Casuarina FC vs Garuda FC

Team pages: Casuarina FC · Garuda FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.51Total

Casuarina FC3.25

Garuda FC1.25

1X2

81% 11% 7%

Casuarina FC Draw Garuda FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Casuarina FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Garuda FC 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Casuarina FC 4–2 Garuda FC (6 last)

Garuda FC0-6Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC2-0Garuda FC
Garuda FC3-2Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC3-0Garuda FC
Garuda FC4-2Casuarina FC
Garuda FC1-2Casuarina FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casuarina FC 1451 · Garuda FC 1353

	Casuarina FC	Draw	Garuda FC
Our model	76%	14%	11%
Market	86%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.51 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casuarina FC (rating 1451 vs 1353).
H2H favours Casuarina FC: 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casuarina FC	Garuda FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.4	0.9 / 5.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.2 / 2.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	0.9 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.07

X10.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.25)1.90

2 (+3.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.80

Under 4.252.00

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 5.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.08▲	Bet365 1.08
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:22 +10’	1.07	10.00	19.00
13:23 +6’	1.08▲	10.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casuarina FC 4–0–2 Garuda FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	0-6 HT 0-2	Casuarina FC
11/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Garuda FC
09/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	3-2 HT 1-2	Casuarina FC
31/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Garuda FC
29/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	4-2 HT 1-0	Casuarina FC
03/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Casuarina FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	18	16	1	1	71	17	49
2	Mindil Aces	17	12	1	4	65	15	37
3	Port Darwin FC	17	11	1	5	61	41	34
4	Darwin Hearts	18	10	3	5	49	38	33
5	Darwin Olympic	18	8	4	6	54	36	28
6	Casuarina FC	18	5	3	10	32	44	18
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	18	5	1	12	35	75	16
8	Hellenic AC	19	4	3	12	26	53	15
9	Garuda FC	19	0	3	16	18	92	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casuarina FC	Garuda FC
Hellenic AC	0-2 L	0-2 L
Darwin Olympic	2-2 D	1-9 L
University Azzurri FC	1-5 L	0-10 L
Mindil Aces	0-3 L	0-11 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	2-3 L	0-7 L
Darwin Hearts	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Casuarina FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casuarina FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	6	2	D
25/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
19/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
03/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
21/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
05/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	6-0	1	3	W
29/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	0	W
23/05	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	2-4	5	5	L

Garuda FC

LLLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	1-4	3	4	L
01/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-11	1	0	L
26/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-7	4	0	L
23/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	2-3	5	0	L
02/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	5	2	D
26/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-10	2	3	L
20/06	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-5	1-9	2	1	L
05/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-6	0	3	L
30/05	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-5	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casuarina FC vs Garuda FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casuarina FC win (81%). Probabilities: Casuarina FC 81%, draw 11%, Garuda FC 7%.

How many goals are expected in Casuarina FC vs Garuda FC?

The model expects 4.51 goals (Casuarina FC 3.25 · Garuda FC 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casuarina FC vs Garuda FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.