Football · Finland Kolmonen · 09/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Vaajakoski II vs KeuPa

Team pages: FC Vaajakoski II · KeuPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.52Total

FC Vaajakoski II1.63

KeuPa2.9

1X2

20% 17% 64%

FC Vaajakoski II Draw KeuPa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Vaajakoski II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWDW

KeuPa 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

FC Vaajakoski II 0–1–1 KeuPa (2 last)

KeuPa5-1FC Vaajakoski II
FC Vaajakoski II2-2KeuPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Vaajakoski II 1483 · KeuPa 1560

	FC Vaajakoski II	Draw	KeuPa
Our model	19%	18%	63%
Market	20%	16%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 4.52 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KeuPa (rating 1483 vs 1560).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Vaajakoski II	KeuPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 3.4	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	11/33/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.2	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X5.50

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.90

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:53 +4’	4.50	5.50	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Vaajakoski II 0–1–1 KeuPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	5-1 HT 0-1	FC Vaajakoski II
20/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Vaajakoski II	2-2	KeuPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	16	11	5	0	56	13	38
2	FC Metso	16	9	3	4	47	33	30
3	FCJ Blackbird	17	8	5	4	46	31	29
4	KeuPa	16	7	6	3	34	29	27
5	FC Vaajakoski II	18	5	2	11	28	60	17
6	JJK/2	15	5	1	9	25	47	16
7	Savon Pallo	17	4	3	10	33	41	15
8	Komeetat	17	3	3	11	22	37	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Vaajakoski II	KeuPa
JJK/2	3-2 W	4-0 W
FCJ Blackbird	2-2 D	3-2 W
Komeetat	2-0 W	1-0 W
Savon Pallo	2-1 W	2-2 D
JPS	0-8 L	1-1 D
FC Metso	3-7 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: KeuPa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Vaajakoski II

LWLLLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
14/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
05/08	JPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L
31/07	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-7	3	0	L
24/07	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-5	14	1	L
15/07	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
17/06	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-3	1-5	3	1	L

KeuPa

LLWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	–	4-3	–	–	W
28/08	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
21/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	2	0	W
14/08	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-2	6	2	W
07/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
24/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	5-1	3	1	W
19/07	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/06	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	3	0	L
17/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Vaajakoski II vs KeuPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KeuPa win (64%). Probabilities: FC Vaajakoski II 20%, draw 17%, KeuPa 64%.

How many goals are expected in FC Vaajakoski II vs KeuPa?

The model expects 4.52 goals (FC Vaajakoski II 1.63 · KeuPa 2.9), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Vaajakoski II vs KeuPa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.