Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: FC Arbaer vs KA Asvellir

Team pages: FC Arbaer · KA Asvellir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

FC Arbaer2.19

KA Asvellir2.21

1X2

39% 21% 40%

FC Arbaer Draw KA Asvellir

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Arbaer 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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KA Asvellir 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Arbaer 0–1 KA Asvellir (1 last)

KA Asvellir2-1FC Arbaer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Arbaer 1401 · KA Asvellir 1457

	FC Arbaer	Draw	KA Asvellir
Our model	39%	21%	40%
Market	39%	21%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KA Asvellir (rating 1401 vs 1457).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Arbaer	KA Asvellir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3	1.9 / 3.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.5 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:47 +25’	2.30	4.20	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Arbaer 0–0–1 KA Asvellir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Iceland 3 Deild	KA Asvellir	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Arbaer

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	19	13	3	3	50	19	42
2	KH Hlidarendi	19	11	5	3	56	25	38
3	Tindastoll	19	12	2	5	46	31	38
4	Reynir Sandgerdi	19	11	3	5	55	39	36
5	KV Vesturbaer	19	9	2	8	50	51	29
6	KF Fjallabyggd	19	6	8	5	27	31	26
7	Sindri	19	7	2	10	35	43	23
8	Hottur/Huginn	19	5	7	7	25	32	22
9	Augnablik Kopavogur	19	6	3	10	35	42	21
10	Ymir Kopavogur	19	5	4	10	31	45	19
11	KA Asvellir	19	6	1	12	34	59	19
12	FC Arbaer	19	2	2	15	28	55	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Arbaer	KA Asvellir
Ymir Kopavogur	3-4 L	5-2 W
Vidir Gardur	2-4 L	0-4 L
Sindri	2-5 L	2-1 W
KH Hlidarendi	1-2 L	0-7 L
Augnablik Kopavogur	4-2 W	3-2 W
Tindastoll	0-4 L	3-7 L
KV Vesturbaer	0-2 L	1-3 L
Reynir Sandgerdi	1-3 L	2-7 L
Hottur/Huginn	0-2 L	1-1 D
KF Fjallabyggd	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 8 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Arbaer (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Arbaer

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	2-2	3-4	3	5	L
19/08	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-3	2-4	4	3	L
15/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
25/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
17/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
13/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-3	9	4	L
04/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
27/06	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-2	1	1	D

KA Asvellir

DLLLWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	2-3	0	9	L
19/08	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	5-2	4	5	W
14/08	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
08/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
29/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	0-4	0-7	–	–	L
23/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
17/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-3	3-7	6	6	L
10/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
03/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	0-4	2-7	–	–	L
27/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Arbaer vs KA Asvellir?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KA Asvellir win (40%). Probabilities: FC Arbaer 39%, draw 21%, KA Asvellir 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Arbaer vs KA Asvellir?

The model expects 4.41 goals (FC Arbaer 2.19 · KA Asvellir 2.21), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Arbaer vs KA Asvellir?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.