Football · Finland Kolmonen · 23/07, 18:00

Prediction: Töölön Taisto vs Tips Vantaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

Töölön Taisto2.54

Tips Vantaa1.88

1X2

52% 20% 28%

Töölön Taisto Draw Tips Vantaa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Töölön Taisto 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDWDWL

Tips Vantaa 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWWLL

Head-to-head

Töölön Taisto 0–1–2 Tips Vantaa (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Töölön Taisto 1486 · Tips Vantaa 1475

	Töölön Taisto	Draw	Tips Vantaa
Our model	52%	20%	28%
Market	52%	20%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tips Vantaa: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Töölön Taisto	Tips Vantaa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.7	2.3 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1	0.9 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +1’	1.73	4.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Töölön Taisto 0–1–2 Tips Vantaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	Töölön Taisto	0-0 HT 0-0	Tips Vantaa
04/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	5-3 HT 2-1	Töölön Taisto
11/08/17 Finland Kolmonen	Tips Vantaa	4-0 HT 1-0	Töölön Taisto

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PPJ/Lauttasaari	11	7	3	1	43	16	24
2	MPS/Atletico Malmi	11	8	0	3	27	18	24
3	ToTe	10	7	1	2	27	11	22
4	Valtti	10	7	0	3	23	19	21
5	LPS Helsinki	9	5	1	3	29	23	16
6	HPS II	11	4	2	5	27	28	14
7	Tips Vantaa	10	4	0	6	23	28	12
8	VJS Vantaa II	11	3	2	6	30	24	11
9	Töölön Taisto	10	2	5	3	20	22	11
10	Atlantis FC/PM	11	3	2	6	24	38	11
11	FC Kontu	11	2	4	5	19	28	10
12	PPS	11	1	0	10	10	47	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Töölön Taisto	Tips Vantaa
ToTe	1-4 L	0-2 L
VJS Vantaa II	3-1 W	5-2 W
HPS II	2-2 D	1-5 L
PPS	5-0 W	3-1 W
FC Kontu	3-3 D	2-0 W
Atlantis FC/PM	2-2 D	2-4 L
PPJ/Lauttasaari	2-2 D	2-1 W
LPS Helsinki	2-2 D	4-7 L
Valtti	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Tips Vantaa (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Töölön Taisto

LLDDDDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-4	5	5	L
24/06	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-1	9	9	W
11/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
07/06	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-0	7	4	W
28/05	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-3	2	4	D
21/05	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
15/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
02/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	9	L
28/04	JaPS Finland Cup	1-4	1-9	1	2	L

Tips Vantaa

LWLWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	0-4	2-4	6	5	L
17/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	2-3	4-7	6	4	L
12/06	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
28/05	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-5	4	4	L
22/05	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	3	2	L
15/05	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-1	2	1	W
08/05	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
04/05	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	2-2	5-2	5	4	W
24/04	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Töölön Taisto vs Tips Vantaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Töölön Taisto win (52%). Probabilities: Töölön Taisto 52%, draw 20%, Tips Vantaa 28%.

How many goals are expected in Töölön Taisto vs Tips Vantaa?

The model expects 4.43 goals (Töölön Taisto 2.54 · Tips Vantaa 1.88), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Töölön Taisto vs Tips Vantaa?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.