Football · Malawi Super League · 24/10, 15:00
Prediction: Big Bullets vs Civil Service Utd
Team pages: Big Bullets · Civil Service Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Big Bullets1.75
Civil Service Utd0.61
1X2
Big Bullets
Draw
Civil Service Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Big Bullets
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Civil Service Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Big Bullets
2–3–1
Civil Service Utd
(6 last)
- Civil Service Utd2-2Big Bullets
- Big Bullets4-3Civil Service Utd
- Civil Service Utd2-1Big Bullets
- Civil Service Utd2-2Big Bullets
- Civil Service Utd0-0Big Bullets
- Big Bullets2-0Civil Service Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Big Bullets 1588 · Civil Service Utd 1482
| Big Bullets | Draw | Civil Service Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 25% | 11% |
| Market | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Big Bullets (rating 1588 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Big Bullets: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Big Bullets | Civil Service Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Big Bullets 2–3–1 Civil Service Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 23/11/25 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 4-3 HT 3-2 | Civil Service Utd |
| 12/07/25 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Big Bullets |
| 27/11/24 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 19/10/24 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Civil Service Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Big Bullets |
| 14/09/24 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Big Bullets | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Civil Service Utd |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bullets | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 36 |
| 2 | Mighty Wanderers | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Blue Eagles | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 34 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 32 |
| 5 | Chitipa United | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 24 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 22 |
| 7 | Ekhaya FC | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | Masters FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 22 |
| 9 | Moyale Barracks | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 22 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 22 |
| 11 | Civil Service Utd | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 21 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 19 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 17 |
| 14 | Kamuzu Barracks | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 13 |
| 15 | Creck SC | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 13 |
| 16 | MAFCO | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Big Bullets | Civil Service Utd |
|---|---|---|
| MAFCO | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Blue Eagles | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Karonga United | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Dedza Dynamos | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Creck SC | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Masters FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Big Bullets (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Big Bullets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 29/06 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Civil Service Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/07 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Big Bullets vs Civil Service Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Big Bullets win (64%). Probabilities: Big Bullets 64%, draw 24%, Civil Service Utd 12%.
How many goals are expected in Big Bullets vs Civil Service Utd?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Big Bullets 1.75 · Civil Service Utd 0.61), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Big Bullets vs Civil Service Utd?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.