Football · Malawi Super League · 31/10, 13:30
Prediction: Kamuzu Barracks vs Chitipa United
Team pages: Kamuzu Barracks · Chitipa United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
Kamuzu Barracks1.15
Chitipa United0.87
1X2
Kamuzu Barracks
Draw
Chitipa United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Kamuzu Barracks
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Chitipa United
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kamuzu Barracks
3–3
Chitipa United
(6 last)
- Chitipa United2-1Kamuzu Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks3-0Chitipa United
- Chitipa United1-0Kamuzu Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks2-0Chitipa United
- Kamuzu Barracks2-0Chitipa United
- Chitipa United4-1Kamuzu Barracks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kamuzu Barracks 1472 · Chitipa United 1512
| Kamuzu Barracks | Draw | Chitipa United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chitipa United (rating 1472 vs 1512).
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kamuzu Barracks | Chitipa United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kamuzu Barracks 3–0–3 Chitipa United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 01/11/25 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chitipa United |
| 21/06/25 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 20/10/24 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Kamuzu Barracks | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chitipa United |
| 19/09/24 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Chitipa United |
| 29/07/24 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bullets | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 39 |
| 2 | Mighty Wanderers | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 37 |
| 3 | Blue Eagles | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 34 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Chitipa United | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 25 |
| 6 | Ekhaya FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Masters FC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | Moyale Barracks | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 22 | 23 |
| 10 | Red Lions | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 22 |
| 11 | Civil Service Utd | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 21 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | Creck SC | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 16 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 14 |
| 16 | MAFCO | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 24 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kamuzu Barracks | Chitipa United |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Strikers | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Mitundu Baptist FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Ekhaya FC | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| MAFCO | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Blue Eagles | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Masters FC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chitipa United (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kamuzu Barracks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 16/10 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 10/10 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 16/08 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/07 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
Chitipa United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kamuzu Barracks vs Chitipa United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kamuzu Barracks win (41%). Probabilities: Kamuzu Barracks 41%, draw 32%, Chitipa United 27%.
How many goals are expected in Kamuzu Barracks vs Chitipa United?
The model expects 2.02 goals (Kamuzu Barracks 1.15 · Chitipa United 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Kamuzu Barracks vs Chitipa United?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.